Table 5.
Comparing false positive rates (FPR), false negative rates (FNR) and earliest time to signal using the Bayesian sequential method with a 97.5% credible interval as the signal criterion and the frequentist MaxSPRT method when the background rate is 12.7 per 1000 person-years.
| FPR | FNR | Earliest time to signal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
||||||||
| Methods | Variance | RR=1 | RR=1.2 | RR=1.5 | RR=2 | RR=1.2 | RR=1.5 | RR=2 |
|
| ||||||||
| Bayesian | 0.1 | 0.030 | 0.393 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 5.662 | 2.904 | 1.396 |
| 0.5 | 0.040 | 0.362 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 5.141 | 2.556 | 1.249 | |
| 1.0 | 0.041 | 0.360 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 5.023 | 2.503 | 1.228 | |
| 2.0 | 0.044 | 0.360 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 4.967 | 2.466 | 1.216 | |
| 5.0 | 0.045 | 0.359 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 4.941 | 2.440 | 1.208 | |
| MaxSPRT | 0.008 | 0.616 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 6.156 | 3.395 | 1.385 | |
The unit for time is the number of analysis time points.