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. 2024 Feb 5;30(2):573–583. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02728-3

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 1 — A. BCD (N = 296 physicians and 2660 observations) top-3 accuracy by reported confidence. B. PCP (N = 350 physicians and 3150 observations) top-3 accuracy by reported confidence. The measure of center for error bars is the mean accuracy within the following confidence bands: 0–10, 15–25, 30–50, 55–65, 70–85, 90–100. Participants reported confidence with numbers divisible by 5 between 0 and 100. The error bars represent 95% confidence intervals and the confidence interval for the interval that includes 50% is particularly small in both graphs because 71% of BCDs and 70% of PCPs did not change their confidence level from the default of 50%.