Table 2.

Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for incidence of CVD, Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 2001–2018

	Model 1	p-value	Model 2	p-value	Model 3	p-value	Model 4	p-value	Model 5	p-value
Whole normoglycemic population (N = 4594)
2hPG-FPG (mmol/L)	1.10 (1.02–1.19)	0.019	1.09 (1.01–1.18)	0.026	1.10 (1.01–1.19)	0.023	1.14 (1.01–1.28)	0.029	1.15 (1.02–1.29)	0.023
2hPG > FPG	1.21 (0.98–1.49)	0.078	1.18 (0.95–1.46)	0.127	1.18 (0.95–1.46)	0.125	1.27 (0.93–1.72)	0.132	1.27 (0.94–1.73)	0.121
Low-normal FPG subpopulation* (N = 2760)
2hPG-FPG (mmol/L)	1.16 (1.04–1.29)	0.007	1.15 (1.03–1.28)	0.012	1.16 (1.04–1.30)	0.009	1.15 (0.98–1.35)	0.093	1.15 (0.98–1.35)	0.090
2hPG > FPG	1.37 (1.02–1.84)	0.039	1.32 (0.98–1.78)	0.071	1.32 (0.98–1.79)	0.068	1.21 (0.79–1.86)	0.381	1.21 (0.79–1.86)	0.375

Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per unit (1 mmol/L) increase in difference between 2hPG and FPG and also for those with 2hPG > FPG compared to 2hPG ≤ FPG (as the reference)

Model 1: Adjusted for age + sex

Model 2: Model 1 + adjustments for BMI, HTN, hypercholesterolemia, Smoking, Education level

Model 3: Model 2 + further adjustments for FPG.

Model 4: Model 3 + further adjustments for HOMA-IR (in a subsample of the study population with insulin data, 2432 normoglycemic individuals and 1483 low-FPG individuals)

Model 5: Model 3 + further adjustments for HOMA-B (in a subsample of the study population with insulin data, 2432 normoglycemic individuals and 1483 low-FPG individuals)

CVD: cardiovascular disease- HR: hazard ratio- CI: confidence interval- FPG: fasting plasma glucose- 2hPG: 2-hour post-challenge glucose- BMI: body mass index- HTN: hypertension- HOMA-IR: Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance - HOMA-B: Homeostasis Model Assessment of Beta-cell function

*Low-normal FPG was defined as an FPG < 5 mmol/L