Table 6.
Diagnostic ability of the HEARTS-Score in the derivation cohort and validation cohort.
| Derivation Cohort | Validation Cohort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-Statistic (95% CI): 0.90 (0.82–0.98) | C-Statistic (95% CI): 0.82 (0.72–0.92) | ||||
| Low risk | High risk | Low risk | High risk | ||
| Patients, n (%) | 81(55.5) | 65(44.5) | Patients, n (%) | 46(48.4) | 49(51.6) |
| AEF, n (%) | 1(1.2) | 21(32.3) | AEF, n (%) | 2(4.3) | 12(24.5) |
| Sensitivity, % | 4.5 | 95.5 | Sensitivity, % | 14.3 | 85.7 |
| Specificity, % | 35.5 | 64.5 | Specificity, % | 45.7 | 54.3 |
| PPV, % | 1.2 | 32.3 | PPV, % | 4.3 | 24.5 |
| NPV, % | 67.7 | 98.8 | NPV, % | 75.5 | 95.7 |
| Weighted accuracy, % | 20.0 | 80.0 | Weighted accuracy, % | 30.0 | 70.0 |
AEF: arterial–esophageal fistula; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; 95% CI: 95% confidence interval; HEARTS-Score consists of hematemesis, active bleeding, renal function (serum creatinine level > 1.2 mg/dL), prothrombin time > 13 s, previous stent implantation; low risk is defined as a HEARTS-Score of 0–2 points, while high risk is defined as a HEARTS-Score of 3–6 points.