Fig. 3.

Illustration of Model results. We assume a hypothetical population of 1,000 infected people in a community with 5 unique infected contacts (no shared contacts). The figure depicts the results of our model, tracking the number of losses at each step. We split the tracking of ‘cases’ by first identifying how many index cases were identified. Then, with that information, we moved to correctly identifying positive contacts of those index cases. This example shows that if we had 1,000 people who infected 5 people each (5000 total infected contacts) and assuming the use of RAT, we would expect to correctly identify about 43 of the 5000 secondary cases