Table 2.
Observed vs. predicted number of monthly presentations to Victorian EDs for common MH conditions Apr to Oct 2020 (COVID-19)
| Dementia | Delirium | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | |
| Apr-20 | 58 | 87 (68, 110) | -29 | -33.3 | 219 | 310 (275, 353) | -91 | -29.4 |
| May-20 | 78 | 88 (65, 112) | -10 | -11.4 | 295 | 313 (276, 355) | -18 | -5.8 |
| Jun-20 | 72 | 89 (67, 114) | -17 | -19.1 | 271 | 316 (278, 363) | -45 | -14.2 |
| Jul-20 | 82 | 90 (66, 116) | -8 | -8.9 | 317 | 320 (275, 373) | -3 | -0.9 |
| Aug-20 | 71 | 91 (67, 120) | -20 | -22.0 | 266 | 323 (280, 376) | -57 | -17.6 |
| Sep-20 | 73 | 92 (69, 120) | -19 | -20.7 | 312 | 327 (282, 380) | -15 | -4.6 |
| Oct-20 | 77 | 93 (68, 121) | -16 | -17.2 | 276 | 330 (285, 383) | -54 | -16.4 |
| Mean | -17 | -18.9 | -40 | -12.7 | ||||
| Alcohol related disorders | Substance abuse | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | |
| Apr-20 | 543 | 824 (751, 908) | -281 | -34.1 | 509 | 565 (501, 636) | -56 | -9.9 |
| May-20 | 738 | 830 (754, 917) | -92 | -11.1 | 630 | 569 (509, 635) | 61 | 10.7 |
| Jun-20 | 808 | 837 (751, 919) | -29 | -3.5 | 610 | 572 (502, 634) | 38 | 6.6 |
| Jul-20 | 645 | 843 (755, 932) | -198 | -23.5 | 560 | 576 (505, 642) | -16 | -2.8 |
| Aug-20 | 623 | 850 (757, 942) | -227 | -26.7 | 538 | 580 (511, 653) | -42 | -7.2 |
| Sep-20 | 718 | 857 (774, 959) | -139 | -16.2 | 539 | 583 (514, 659) | -44 | -7.5 |
| Oct-20 | 830 | 864 (767, 963) | -34 | -3.9 | 605 | 587 (513, 661) | 18 | 3.1 |
| Mean | -143 | -17.0 | -6 | -1.0 | ||||
| Schizophrenia/delusional disorders | Mood disorders | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | |
| Apr-20 | 639 | 768 (708, 839) | -129 | -16.8 | 483 | 777 (707, 866) | -294 | -37.8 |
| May-20 | 824 | 770 (700, 848) | 54 | 7.0 | 670 | 781 (701, 877) | -111 | -14.2 |
| Jun-20 | 803 | 772 (704, 844) | 31 | 4.0 | 715 | 784 (699, 880) | -69 | -8.8 |
| Jul-20 | 755 | 774 (692, 846) | -19 | -2.5 | 658 | 788 (700, 886) | -130 | -16.5 |
| Aug-20 | 828 | 776 (703, 859) | 52 | 6.7 | 665 | 792 (699, 901) | -127 | -16.0 |
| Sep-20 | 833 | 778 (702, 857) | 55 | 7.1 | 669 | 795 (705, 911) | -126 | -15.8 |
| Oct-20 | 810 | 780 (702, 864) | 30 | 3.8 | 722 | 799 (697, 913) | -77 | -9.6 |
| Mean | 11 | 1.3 | -133 | -17.0 | ||||
| Anxiety disorders | Eating disorders | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | |
| Apr-20 | 962 | 990 (916, 1069) | -28 | -2.8 | 18 | 28 (18, 41) | -10 | -35.7 |
| May-20 | 1034 | 993 (921, 1067) | 41 | 4.1 | 30 | 28 (17, 40) | 2 | 7.1 |
| Jun-20 | 1050 | 997 (925, 1079) | 53 | 5.3 | 24 | 28 (17, 40) | -4 | -14.3 |
| Jul-20 | 935 | 1001 (920, 1074) | -66 | -6.6 | 43 | 28 (18, 41) | 15 | 53.6 |
| Aug-20 | 1005 | 1004 (927, 1081) | 1 | 0.1 | 35 | 28 (16, 41) | 7 | 25.0 |
| Sep-20 | 1061 | 1008 (917, 1096) | 53 | 5.3 | 48 | 28 (18, 42) | 20 | 71.4 |
| Oct-20 | 1051 | 1012 (928, 1096) | 39 | 3.9 | 45 | 28 (17, 42) | 17 | 60.7 |
| Mean | 13 | 1.3 | 7 | 24.0 | ||||
| Personality disorders | Self-harm | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) | |
| Apr-20 | 106 | 121 (97, 147) | -15 | -12.4 | 576 | 599 (549, 654) | -23 | -3.8 |
| May-20 | 119 | 120 (97, 147) | -1 | -0.8 | 559 | 599 (542, 658) | -40 | -6.7 |
| Jun-20 | 107 | 120 (96, 144) | -13 | -10.8 | 577 | 599 (542, 658) | -22 | -3.7 |
| Jul-20 | 118 | 120 (96, 145) | -2 | -1.7 | 605 | 599 (541, 651) | 6 | 1.0 |
| Aug-20 | 128 | 120 (96, 147) | 8 | 6.7 | 613 | 599 (544, 656) | 14 | 2.3 |
| Sep-20 | 119 | 120 (94, 147) | -1 | -0.8 | 638 | 599 (539, 661) | 39 | 6.5 |
| Oct-20 | 182 | 119 (94, 147) | 63 | 52.9 | 703 | 599 (539, 657) | 104 | 17.4 |
| Mean | 6 | 4.7 | 11 | 1.9 | ||||
| Development/behavioural disorders | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted (95% PI) | Difference | Relative difference (%) |
| 192 | 248 (218, 283) | -56 | -22.6 |
| 211 | 251 (219, 287) | -40 | -15.9 |
| 227 | 255 (223, 288) | -28 | -11.0 |
| 197 | 258 (223, 297) | -61 | -23.6 |
| 193 | 261 (226, 301) | -68 | -26.1 |
| 218 | 265 (231, 305) | -47 | -17.7 |
| 212 | 268 (228, 309) | -56 | -20.9 |
| -51 | -19.7 | ||