Table 3.

Transitional probabilities for repeated water sampling rounds, based on water lead categories of the prior sample.

Scenario	WLL category on roundn	Probability of WLL categories on Roundn+1
		Non-detect	Detectable, no spike	Spike	Total
Higher probability of upward transition	Non-detect	0.75	0.20	0.05	1.0
	Detect but <15 µg/L	0.10	0.65	0.25	1.0
	≥15 µg/L	0.05	0.70	0.25	1.0
Mid-range probability of upward transition	Non-detect	0.80	0.19	0.01	1.0
	Detect but <15 µg/L	0.30	0.65	0.05	1.0
	≥15 µg/L	0.15	0.80	0.05	1.0
Lower probability of upward transition	Non-detect	0.90	0.095	0.005	1.0
	Detect but <15 µg/L	0.30	0.69	0.01	1.0
	≥15 µg/L	0.15	0.825	0.025	1.0