Table 5. CVD outcomes according to changes in MVPA levels from baseline to the 1st follow-up in China-PAR project.

Variable	Numbers of cases/Numbers at risk	Adjusted incidence (95% CI)*	HR (95% CI)
Models were adjusted for covariates derived from first follow-up survey, including age, sex, geographic region, urbanization, education, family history of CVD, cohort sources, current smoking status, alcohol consumption, and mild physical activity. *Adjusted incidence was expressed as per 1,000 person-years and was adjusted for age and sex by Poisson regression model. CVD: cardiovascular disease; IHD: ischemic heart disease.
CVD
Continually inactive	178/4520	9.51 (7.93–11.41)	1.00 (reference)
From inactive to active	47/1942	6.81 (5.01–9.26)	0.71 (0.50–1.00)
From active to inactive	125/3271	6.39 (5.25–7.79)	0.97 (0.74–1.26)
Continually active	127/5496	5.10 (4.21–6.17)	0.57 (0.43–0.77)
Stroke
Continually inactive	93/4520	5.70 (4.45–7.29)	1.00 (reference)
From inactive to active	27/1942	3.65 (2.43–5.49)	0.78 (0.49–1.25)
From active to inactive	77/3271	3.86 (2.96–5.04)	1.07 (0.75–1.52)
Continually active	85/5496	2.96 (2.32–3.78)	0.65 (0.44–0.96)
IHD
Continually inactive	73/4520	3.40 (2.55–4.54)	1.00 (reference)
From inactive to active	15/1942	2.43 (1.43–4.11)	0.59 (0.32–1.06)
From active to inactive	41/3271	2.04 (1.50–2.77 )	1.02 (0.67–1.56)
Continually active	38/5496	1.76 (1.26–2.47 )	0.53 (0.33–0.87)
Heart failure
Continually inactive	20/4520	0.60 (0.31–1.15)	1.00 (reference)
From inactive to active	3/1942	1.09 (0.25–4.64)	0.44 (0.10–2.02)
From active to inactive	12/3271	0.37 (0.17–0.84)	0.75 (0.27–2.11)
Continually active	4/5496	0.45 (0.15–1.34)	0.37 (0.10–1.36)
CVD death
Continually inactive	55/4520	2.62 (1.79–3.85 )	1.00 (reference)
From inactive to active	15/1942	2.42 (1.43–4.12 )	0.89 (0.50–1.60)
From active to inactive	42/3271	2.06 (1.44–2.94 )	1.24 (0.80–1.93)
Continually active	37/5496	1.64 (1.16–2.32 )	0.52 (0.31–0.89)