Table 2.

Outcome Probability Parameter Description of Non-Surveillance and Surveillance Cohort

Outcome parameter description non-ultrasound surveillance	Distribution	Probabilistic	Mean	SE
Probability of diagnostic CCA from imaging positive	beta	0.0723	0.1000	0.0300
Probability of resectable CCA or premalignant lesion from imaging positive	beta	0.1847	0.1653	0.0338
Probability of resectable CCA or premalignant lesion needed chemotherapy	beta	0.6291	0.6500	0.1067
Probability of unresectable CCA or premalignant lesion needed chemotherapy	beta	0.5991	0.6238	0.0482
Probability of survive of resectable CCA with treatment	beta	0.4023	0.2308	0.1169
Probability of survive of resectable CCA without treatment	beta	0.3682	0.4286	0.1870
Probability of survive of unresectable CCA with treatment	beta	0.0426	0.0317	0.0221
Probability of non-diagnostic CCA	beta	0.9031	0.8850	0.0391
Probability of survive of non-diagnostic CCA	beta	1.0000	1.0000	0.0000
Outcome parameter description ultrasound surveillance	Distribution	Probabilistic	Mean	SE
Probability of ultrasound surveillance positive	beta	0.0496	0.0473	0.0033
Probability of diagnostic surveillance positive	beta	0.2955	0.3150	0.0328
Probability of resectable CCA or premalignant lesion from imaging positive	beta	0.6681	0.7460	0.0548
Probability of resectable CCA or premalignant lesion needed chemotherapy	beta	0.2640	0.3191	0.0680
Probability of unresectable CCA or premalignant lesion needed chemotherapy	beta	0.4370	0.5625	0.1240
Probability of survive of resectable CCA with treatment	beta	0.4133	0.2667	0.1142
Probability of survive of resectable CCA without treatment	beta	0.8899	0.9063	0.0515
Probability of survive of unresectable CCA without treatment	beta	0.3251	0.2857	0.1707