Table 2. Target density strategies minimizing cumulative epidemic impact measures by county and daily cull capacity for simulated FMD epidemics in four counties of the UK.
| Epidemic impact measure of interest | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum animals culled | Minimum farms culled | Minimum epidemic duration (days) | |||||||
| Cull capacity | Value | Density | Radius | Value | Density | Radius | Value | Density | Radius |
| Aberdeenshire | |||||||||
| 5 | 591 | 0.4 | 5 | 1.94 | 0.4 | 5 | 18 | 0.05 | 3 |
| 10 | 650 | 0.4 | 5 | 2.18 | 0.4 | 4 | 18 | 0.1 | 3 |
| 20 | 635 | 0 | 0 | 2.08 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.05 | 4 |
| 100 | 655 | 0.4 | 5 | 2.11 | 0.4 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 4 |
| Cumbria | |||||||||
| 5 | 25,522 | 0.05 | 3 | 45 | 0.15 | 4 | 29 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 10 | 24,982 | 0.15 | 3 | 46 | 0.15 | 3 | 30 | 0.05 | 4 |
| 20 | 21,939 | 0.15 | 2 | 44 | 0.2 | 3 | 27 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 100 | 21,617 | 0.15 | 2 | 42 | 0.2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 5 |
| Devon | |||||||||
| 5 | 5,293 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 17 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 23 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 10 | 4,925 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 15 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 24 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 20 | 4,844 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 24 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 100 | 5,090 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 16 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 23 | 0 | 5 |
| North Yorkshire | |||||||||
| 5 | 5,247 | 0.1 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 23 | 0.05 | 4 |
| 10 | 5,252 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 12 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 22 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 20 | 4,946 | 0.05 | 1 | 12 | 0.05 | 1 | 22 | 0.05 | 5 |
| 100 | 4,424 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 10 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 21 | 0 | 5 |
Note:
For each county and daily cull capacity (farms/day), we report the minimum average epidemic impact measure for each of the three epidemic impact measures of interest (total animals culled, total farms culled, and epidemic duration). We also report the corresponding target density and radius for each simulation scenario.