Table 2.
Predictors of 30-day mortality by logistic regression model (derivation cohort, n = 5459).
| Characteristics | Crude odds ratio (95% CI) | P value* | Adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) | Coefficient (95% CI) | P value* | Score points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age ≥ 70 years | 2.25 (1.18–4.32) | 0.014 | ||||
| Sex (male) | 1.20 (0.68–2.14) | 0.533 | ||||
| BMI ≤ 18.5 | 2.16 (1.09–4.27) | 0.027 | ||||
| Current drinker | 0.42 (0.21–0.84) | 0.014 | ||||
| Current smoker | 1.35 (0.66–2.75) | 0.412 | ||||
| Performance status ≥ 2 | 9.97 (5.67–17.51) | < 0.001 | 5.54 (2.54–12.05) | 1.71 (0.93–2.49) | < 0.001 | 2 |
| Hemodynamics | ||||||
| Systolic blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg | 4.86 (2.78–8.50) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Heart rate ≥ 100/min | 1.08 (0.55–2.11) | 0.825 | ||||
| Symptom | ||||||
| Altered mental status | 2.71 (1.26–5.82) | 0.011 | ||||
| Abdominal pain | 1.00 (0.48–2.06) | 0.992 | ||||
| Diarrhea | 0.67 (0.32–1.44) | 0.306 | ||||
| Laboratory data | ||||||
| Hemoglobin < 12 g/dL | 3.43 (1.67–7.06) | < 0.001 | ||||
| WBC > 10,000/mm3 | 2.83 (1.62–4.94) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Platelet count < 150,000/mm3 | 2.72 (1.51–4.88) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Albumin level < 3.0 g/dL | 20.52 (10.85–38.82) | < 0.001 | 5.45 (2.23–13.31) | 1.70 (0.80–2.59) | < 0.001 | 2 |
| INR ≥ 1.5 | 2.81 (1.43–5.52) | 0.003 | ||||
| Hematocrit ≤ 35% | 3.13 (1.60–6.12) | < 0.001 | ||||
| BUN ≥ 25 mg/dL | 5.38 (2.99–9.49) | < 0.001 | 2.57 (1.19–5.57) | 0.95 (0.17–1.72) | 0.016 | 1 |
| Creatinine ≥ 1.5 mg/dL | 3.62 (2.01–6.52) | < 0.001 | ||||
| CRP ≥ 1.0 mg/dL | 10.42 (5.53–19.62) | < 0.001 | 3.35 (1.41–7.92) | 1.21 (0.35–2.07) | 0.006 | 1 |
| Home medication | ||||||
| Low-dose aspirin | 1.39 (0.74–2.61) | 0.313 | ||||
| Antiplatelet drug (non-aspirin) | 0.85 (0.36–1.99) | 0.702 | ||||
| Warfarin | 2.17 (0.97–4.84) | 0.060 | ||||
| Direct oral anticoagulant | 0.61 (0.15–2.52) | 0.495 | ||||
| NSAIDs | 2.13 (1.03–4.40) | 0.041 | ||||
| Acetaminophen | 1.68 (0.41–7.00) | 0.474 | ||||
| Corticosteroid | 1.14 (0.35–3.60) | 0.855 | ||||
| Comorbidity | ||||||
| Previous diverticular bleeding | 0.23 (0.06–0.97) | 0.044 | ||||
| Hypertension | 0.82 (0.47–1.43) | 0.485 | ||||
| Dyslipidemia | 0.69 (0.34–1.38) | 0.292 | ||||
| Diabetes mellitus | 1.32 (0.69–2.54) | 0.398 | ||||
| Diabetes complication | 1.93 (0.59–6.25) | 0.275 | ||||
| Hemiplegia | 3.97 (1.55–10.14) | 0.004 | ||||
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1.87 (0.98–3.59) | 0.059 | ||||
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 3.66 (1.44–9.34) | 0.007 | ||||
| Dementia | 3.08 (1.44–6.60) | 0.004 | ||||
| Collagen disease | 1.39 (0.43–4.51) | 0.579 | ||||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.91 (0.41–2.02) | 0.814 | ||||
| Heart failure | 2.56 (1.24–5.29) | 0.011 | ||||
| Previous peptic ulcer | 1.39 (0.55–3.52) | 0.486 | ||||
| Renal failure | 2.17 (1.15–4.08) | 0.017 | ||||
| Peripheral arterial disease | 2.76 (1.09–7.02) | 0.033 | ||||
| Chronic hepatitis | 1.71 (0.41–7.11) | 0.460 | ||||
| Cirrhosis | 5.33 (2.08–13.69) | < 0.001 | 4.72 (1.44–15.49) | 1.55 (0.36–2.74) | 0.011 | 2 |
| Blood malignancy and nonmetastatic solid cancer† | 6.13 (3.52–10.68) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Metastatic cancer | 14.23 (7.40–27.36) | < 0.001 | 10.84 (4.56–25.94) | 2.38 (1.51–3.26) | < 0.001 | 3 |
BMI body mass index, BUN blood urea nitrogen, CI confidence interval, CRP C-reactive protein, INR international normalized ratio, NSAIDs nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, WBC white blood cell count.
*Bold values indicate P < 0.05.
†Blood malignancy was included with the comorbidity of leukemia and lymphoma.