Table 3.
Predictors of 1-year mortality by Cox proportional hazards model (derivation cohort, n = 4030).
| Characteristics | Crude hazard ratio (95% CI) | P value* | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) | Coefficient (95% CI) | P value* | Score points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age ≥ 70 years | 1.98 (1.39–2.84) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Sex (male) | 1.17 (0.85–1.61) | 0.347 | ||||
| BMI ≤ 18.5 | 4.01 (2.89–5.55) | < 0.001 | 1.80 (1.21–2.68) | 0.59 (1.89–0.99) | 0.004 | 1 |
| Current drinker | 0.75 (0.53–1.06) | 0.102 | ||||
| Current smoker | 0.69 (0.43–1.12) | 0.136 | ||||
| Performance status ≥ 2 | 4.29 (3.09–5.96) | < 0.001 | 2.22 (1.49–3.31) | 0.80 (0.40–1.20) | < 0.001 | 2 |
| Hemodynamics | ||||||
| Systolic blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg | 2.92 (2.08–4.09) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Heart rate ≥ 100/min | 1.61 (1.14–2.27) | 0.007 | ||||
| Symptom | ||||||
| Altered mental status | 1.18 (0.64–2.18) | 0.588 | ||||
| Abdominal pain | 0.81 (0.53–1.23) | 0.319 | ||||
| Diarrhea | 1.17 (0.70–1.95) | 0.562 | ||||
| Laboratory data | ||||||
| Hemoglobin < 12 g/dL | 3.91 (2.55–6.00) | < 0.001 | ||||
| WBC > 10,000/mm3 | 1.26 (0.88–1.80) | 0.210 | ||||
| Platelet count < 150,000/mm3 | 2.66 (1.92–3.69) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Albumin level > 3.0 g/dL | 6.77 (4.95–9.26) | < 0.001 | 2.03 (1.33–3.09) | 0.71 (0.28–1.13) | 0.001 | 1 |
| INR ≥ 1.5 | 1.99 (1.33–2.98) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Hematocrit ≤ 35% | 3.61 (2.44–5.33) | < 0.001 | ||||
| BUN ≥ 25 mg/dL | 3.24 (2.38–4.40) | < 0.001 | 1.90 (1.32–2.73) | 0.64 (0.28–1.01) | 0.001 | 1 |
| Creatinine ≥ 1.5 mg/dL | 3.35 (2.42–4.64) | < 0.001 | ||||
| CRP ≥ 1.0 mg/dL | 3.08 (2.27–4.19) | < 0.001 | 1.70 (1.15–2.51) | 0.53 (0.14–0.92) | 0.008 | 1 |
| Home medication | ||||||
| Low-dose aspirin | 1.03 (0.71–1.49) | 0.884 | ||||
| Antiplatelet drug (non-aspirin) | 0.96 (0.62–1.49) | 0.842 | ||||
| Warfarin | 1.16 (0.68–1.97) | 0.584 | ||||
| Direct oral anticoagulant | 1.29 (0.73–2.27) | 0.381 | ||||
| NSAIDs | 2.03 (1.35–3.04) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Acetaminophen | 2.32 (1.19–4.55) | 0.014 | ||||
| Corticosteroid | 2.02 (1.25–3.25) | 0.004 | ||||
| Comorbidity | ||||||
| Previous diverticular bleeding | 0.34 (0.18–0.67) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Hypertension | 0.72 (0.53–0.98) | 0.038 | ||||
| Dyslipidemia | 0.77 (0.53–1.10) | 0.148 | ||||
| Diabetes mellitus | 1.26 (0.89–1.81) | 0.197 | ||||
| Diabetes complication | 1.57 (0.80–3.08) | 0.187 | ||||
| Hemiplegia | 1.47 (0.60–3.57) | 0.399 | ||||
| Cerebrovascular disease | 1.16 (0.73–1.70) | 0.611 | ||||
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1.73 (0.88–3.39) | 0.110 | ||||
| Dementia | 2.72 (1.65–4.49) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Collagen disease | 1.61 (0.91–2.83) | 0.102 | ||||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.81 (0.52–1.27) | 0.354 | ||||
| Heart failure | 2.40 (1.62–3.57) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Previous peptic ulcer | 1.48 (0.91–2.41) | 0.119 | ||||
| Renal failure | 2.16 (1.53–3.04) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Peripheral arterial disease | 1.49 (0.79–2.83) | 0.219 | ||||
| Chronic hepatitis | 1.74 (0.85–3.54) | 0.128 | ||||
| Cirrhosis | 5.64 (3.41–9.32) | < 0.001 | 4.44 (2.46–8.01) | 1.49 (0.90–2.08) | < 0.001 | 3 |
| Blood malignancy and nonmetastatic solid cancer† | 7.82 (5.72–10.68) | < 0.001 | 3.03 (1.97–4.66) | 1.11 (0.68–1.54) | < 0.001 | 2 |
| Metastatic cancer | 14.96 (10.58–21.16) | < 0.001 | 4.48 (2.75–7.31) | 1.50 (1.01–1.99) | < 0.001 | 3 |
| Diagnostic procedure | ||||||
| CT | 0.80 (0.58–1.09) | 0.161 | ||||
| Therapeutic procedures | ||||||
| Endoscopic treatment | 0.77 (0.53–1.12) | 0.171 | ||||
| Interventional radiology | 1.03 (0.33–3.21) | 0.965 | ||||
| Surgery | 2.34 (1.10–4.99) | 0.028 | ||||
| Blood transfusion during hospitalization | 3.51 (2.58–4.77) | < 0.001 | 1.92 (1.37–2.82) | 0.65 (0.27–1.04) | 0.001 | 1 |
| The final diagnosis of hematochezia | ||||||
| Colonic diverticular bleeding | 0.34 (0.25–0.48) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Rectal ulcer | 5.43 (3.19–9.24) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Angioectasia | 2.23 (0.99–5.05) | 0.054 | ||||
| Upper gastrointestinal bleeding | 3.59 (1.89–6.80) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Small intestinal bleeding | 2.24 (1.10–4.56) | 0.026 | ||||
| Malignancy | 6.43 (4.17–9.92) | < 0.001 | 2.61 (1.56–4.36) | 0.96 (0.45–1.47) | < 0.001 | 2 |
| Others | 2.61 (1.71–4.00) | < 0.001 | ||||
| In-hospital outcomes | ||||||
| Length of hospital stay ≥ 8 days | 2.43 (1.74–3.38) | < 0.001 | ||||
| Rebleeding during hospitalization | 1.01 (0.65–1.57) | 0.956 | ||||
| Thromboembolism | 4.54 (2.01–10.27) | < 0.001 | ||||
BMI body mass index, BUN blood urea nitrogen, CI confidence interval, CRP C-reactive protein, CT computed tomography, INR international normalized ratio, NSAIDs nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, WBC white blood cell count.
*Bold values indicate P < 0.05.
†Blood malignancy was included with the comorbidity of leukemia and lymphoma.