Table 1. Bayesian multivariable logistic regression models of baseline evaluation associated with week 4 remission and additional therapy/colectomy for patients initially treated with IV steroids.

	Remission, all patients	Remission by Initial Treatment			Additional Therapy/ Colectomy
Odds Ratio (95% CI)	Total (N = 419) #	5-ASA (N = 135)	Oral CS (N = 142)	IV CS (N = 142)	IV CS only (N = 142)
Model sample size (% of total N)	n = 355 (85%)	n = 132 (98%)	n = 123 (87%)	n = 142 (100%)	n = 120 (85%)
Number of events (% of model n)	179 (50%)	73 (55%)	70 (57%)	57 (40%)	32 (27%)
Total Mayo score	Mayo < 10:	-	Mayo < 10:	Mayo < 11:	Mayo ≥ 11:
	1.85 (1.11, 3.12)		3.43 (1.25, 9.81)	2.35 (1.18, 4.80)	5.83 (1.99, 18.91)
Albumin per 1 g/dL	1.38 (0.99, 1.92)	2.11 (1.23, 3.73)	-	-	0.25 (0.09, 0.58)
Proctosigmoiditis	5.37 (1.93, 18.97)	3.15 (1.11, 10.66)	-	-	-
Rectal biopsy eosinophil peak count /hpf	Count > 32:	-	Count > 32:	-	Count ≤ 32:
	1.74 (1.11, 2.74)		2.86 (1.29, 6.70)		7.63 (2.50, 27.20)
Relative rectal sparing	4.71 (1.92, 13.43)	-	8.55 (1.85, 67.12)	-	-
Rectal biopsy surface villiform changes	-	-	-	-	3.29 (1.14, 9.96)
Model evaluation
AUC	0.69 (0.67, 0.70)	0.66 (0.64, 0.66)	0.70 (0.68, 0.71)	0.60 (0.60, 0.60)	0.86 (0.84, 0.87)
CV-AUC	0.67 (0.59, 0.72)	0.65 (0.59, 0.68)	0.69 (0.58, 0.73)	0.59 (0.54, 0.60)	0.83 (0.72, 0.91)
Sensitivity	0.62 (0.41, 0.76)	0.73 (0.38, 0.95)	0.77 (0.73, 0.90)	0.67 (0.00, 1.00)	0.58 (0.41, 0.69)
Specificity	0.66 (0.48, 0.85)	0.46 (0.20, 0.78)	0.54 (0.26, 0.64)	0.51 (0.00, 1.00)	0.90 (0.83, 0.97)
Positive predictive value	0.66 (0.60, 0.75)	0.63 (0.58, 0.70)	0.70 (0.62, 0.73)	0.46 (0.00, 0.49)	0.69 (0.58, 0.80)
Negative predictive value	0.63 (0.59, 0.67)	0.59 (0.49, 0.74)	0.65 (0.64, 0.67)	0.67 (0.00, 0.71)	0.86 (0.81, 0.89)

# Total N = number evaluable at week 4 and with no protocol violations. AUC = area under the curve. CV-AUC = 10-fold cross validation AUC