Table 2. Bayesian multivariable logistic regression models of week 12 outcomes by treatment type.

	CS-Free Remission, all patients	CS-Free Remission by Initial Treatment			Additional Therapy/Colectomy
Odds Ratio (95% CI)	Total (N = 409)#	5-ASA (N = 129)	Oral CS (N = 139)	IV CS (N = 141)	IV CS only (N = 141)
p-value
Model sample size (% of total N)	n = 403 (99%)	n = 116 (90%)	n = 139 (100%)	n = 119 (84%)	n = 119 (84%)
Number of events (% of model n)	140 (35%)	57 (49%)	47 (34%)	26 (22%)	42 (35%)
Baseline predictors:
Lower PUCAI	PUCAI <35:	-	PUCAI < 45:	-	-
	2.43 (1.41, 4.27)		4.50 (1.86, 10.96)
Total Mayo score ≥11	-	-	-	-	2.69 (0.98, 7.81)
Higher albumin per 1g/dL increase (interaction with age)	For Age < 12:	-	-	-	-
	3.56 (1.84, 7.48)
	For Age ≥ 12:
	1.22 (0.79, 1.82)
Hemoglobin ≥12 g/dL	-	2.22 (0.98, 5.16)	-	-	-
Rectal biopsy eosinophil peak count ≤32/hpf	-	-	-	-	4.79 (1.72, 13.98)
Rectal biopsy surface villiform changes	-	-	-	No changes:	Changes:
				2.76 (1.04, 8.29)	3.20 (1.14, 9.35)
Week 4 Remission	6.37 (3.90, 10.64)	3.79 (1.71, 8.63)	8.35 (3.43, 23.71)	7.67 (2.87, 23.53)	No Remission:
					34.47 (8.65, 217.76)
Model evaluation
AUC	0.78 (0.77, 0.79)	0.70 (0.63, 0.70)	0.78 (0.76, 0.78)	0.77 (0.74, 0.77)	0.88 (0.86, 0.89)
CV-AUC	0.78 (0.73, 0.81)	0.68 (0.55, 0.72)	0.77 (0.74, 0.80)	0.76 (0.58, 0.80)	0.87 (0.80, 0.91)
Sensitivity	0.46 (0.37, 0.65)	0.65 (0.54, 0.74)	0.43 (0.40, 0.85)	0.33 (0.00, 0.62)	0.75 (0.57, 0.86)
Specificity	0.87 (0.74, 0.91)	0.66 (0.47, 0.76)	0.91 (0.58, 0.93)	0.92 (0.86, 1.00)	0.86 (0.74, 0.94)
Positive predictive value	0.66 (0.57, 0.70)	0.65 (0.58, 0.69)	0.74 (0.51, 0.76)	0.29 (0.00, 0.55)	0.76 (0.64, 0.84)
Negative predictive value	0.75 (0.73, 0.80)	0.67 (0.63, 0.69)	0.76 (0.75, 0.88)	0.84 (0.78, 0.89)	0.86 (0.79, 0.91)

#N is the number evaluable at week 12 and with no protocol violations. AUC = area under the curve. CV-AUC = 10-fold cross validation AUC.