Figure - PMC

Skip to main content

An official website of the United States government

Here's how you know

Here's how you know

Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

View full-text article in PMC

. 2024 Mar 6;15:1883. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45549-9

Search in PMC
Search in PubMed
View in NLM Catalog
Add to search

© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

PMC Copyright notice

Fig. 3 — This sensitivity analysis tested alternative model parameters and assumptions on overall vaccine-induced protection (optimistic and pessimistic assumptions), waning of vaccine-induced protection (optimistic and pessimistic assumptions), COVID-19 incidence (0.5x lower or 2x higher) and seroprevalence (100% previously infected). For each sensitivity analysis, we re-calibrated the model and simulated three COVID-19 booster vaccine schedules and plotted annual risk of severe COVID-19. We plotted results for three representative risk groups: 18–49 years (A), 75+ years (B), and the mild immunocompromised population (C). The vertical bars represent uncertainty intervals and capture the full range of varied model parameters (n = 25 simulations per model parameter set), while the point estimate uses base case assumptions of model inputs. Intervals are designed to demonstrate uncertainty within a single vaccine strategy; comparison between vaccine strategies should use the same assumed baseline conditions. Additional risk groups are available in the Appendix (Supplementary Tables S13–S25).