Table 2.
Results of multilevel negative binomial regression analyses predicting total crimes, Part 1 crimes, and Part 2 crimes from alcohol outlet density and COVID-19 shelter in place restrictions, incident rate ratio (IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI)
| Model | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Total Crimes IRR (95% CI) |
Part 1 Crimes1 IRR (95% CI) |
Part 2 Crimes2 IRR (95% CI) |
| On-sale density | 1.04 (1.01, 1.08)* | 1.05 (1.01, 1.10)* | 1.03 (0.99, 1.08) |
| Off-sale density | 0.95 (0.91, 1.00)* | 0.98 (0.92, 1.04) | 0.95 (0.91, 0.99)* |
| Shelter-in-place (SIP)3 | |||
| Minimal | 1.08 (0.92, 1.26) | 1.11 (0.96, 1.28) | 1.01 (0.81, 1.27) |
| Full | 1.07 (0.94, 1.22) | 1.04 (0.90, 1.20) | 1.07 (0.89, 1.27) |
| On-sale density X SIP | |||
| Minimal | 0.98 (0.95, 1.00)§ | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 0.97 (0.93, 1.01)§ |
| Full | 0.98 (0.96, 0.99)*** | 0.98 (0.96, 1.00)* | 0.98 (0.95, 1.00)§ |
| Other retail density | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04)* | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.04)** |
| Race4 | |||
| % American Indian/Alaska Native | 0.80 (0.54, 1.17) | 0.71 (0.42, 1.21) | 0.84 (0.61, 1.17) |
| % Asian | 1.05 (0.99, 1.11) | 1.05 (0.97, 1.14) | 1.05 (1.00, 1.11) |
| % Black | 1.00 (0.98, 1.02) | 1.00 (0.95, 1.05) | 1.00 (0.97, 1.02) |
| % Native Hawaiian/% Pacific Islander | 0.52 (0.27, 1.00)* | 0.46 (0.19, 1.12) | 0.53 (0.29, 0.99)* |
| % Multi-racial | 1.05 (0.96, 1.15) | 1.04 (0.91, 1.19) | 1.05 (0.96, 1.15) |
| % Other Race | 1.01 (0.97, 1.05) | 1.00 (0.95, 1.06) | 1.01 (0.97, 1.05) |
| % Hispanic/Latino(a) | 0.99 (0.96, 1.01) | 0.99 (0.95, 1.03) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.01) |
| % At least bachelor’s degree | 0.98 (0.94, 1.01) | 0.96 (0.91, 1.02) | 0.99 (0.95, 1.02) |
| Median HH income (100K) | .998 (.997, .998)*** | .999 (.997, 1.00)* | .998 (.997, .999)*** |
| Population (1K) | 1.28 (1.18, 1.40)*** | 1.38 (1.23, 1.55)*** | 1.24 (1.14, 1.34)*** |
| Time | 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) | 1.00 (0.97, 1.03) | 1.03 (0.99, 1.08) |
Part 1 crimes include criminal homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny theft, grand theft auto, and arson.
Part 2 crimes include sex offenses (felony and misdemeanour), non-aggravated assaults, weapons, offenses against family, narcotics, under the influence of alcohol / drugs, drunk in public, drunk driving (vehicle / boat), vandalism, miscellaneous felonies, and miscellaneous misdemeanours.
SIP was coded as 0 for quarters with no shelter in place restrictions, 1 (minimal) for quarters where restrictions were in place for ≤ 18% of days, and 2 (full) when they were in place for ≥ 90% of days. All quarters fell into one of these mutually exclusive categories. No restrictions is the reference category.
White is the reference group.
p < .10
p < .05
p < .01
p < .001