Table 2.
Placebo Impacts on Predicted Outcomes Based on Observable Covariates
| RD (±0.5) |
RD-DID (±0.5) |
DID (+0.5/–1.0) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted Outcome | Coef. | (SE) | Coef. | (SE) | Coef. | (SE) |
| Year 2 | ||||||
| Enrolled, fall Y2 | 0.00 | (0.006) | 0.01 | (0.007) | 0.00 | (0.003) |
| Term GPA, fall Y2 | 0.02 | (0.006)*** | 0.02 | (0.008)** | 0.00 | (0.003) |
| Credits attempted, fall Y2 | 0.08 | (0.085) | 0.17 | (0.108) | 0.02 | (0.038) |
| Credits earned, fall Y2 | 0.09 | (0.067) | 0.17 | (0.082)** | 0.01 | (0.031) |
| Quarterly earnings ($), Y2 | 14 | (54) | 77 | (70) | 18 | (27) |
| Year 3 | ||||||
| Still enrolled, end of Y3 | 0.00 | (0.004) | 0.00 | (0.005) | 0.00 | (0.002) |
| Cumulative GPA, end of Y3 | 0.02 | (0.006)*** | 0.02 | (0.008)*** | 0.00 | (0.003) |
| Credits attempted, Y2–Y3 | 0.26 | (0.280) | 0.57 | (0.355) | 0.04 | (0.135) |
| Credits earned, Y2–Y3 | 0.27 | (0.219) | 0.53 | (0.274)* | 0.02 | (0.109) |
| Quarterly earnings ($), Y2–Y3 | 11 | (48) | 71 | (65) | 13 | (25) |
| Year 6 | ||||||
| Still enrolled, end of Y6 | 0.00 | (0.001) | 0.00 | (0.001) | 0.00 | (0.000) |
| Cumulative GPA, end of Y6 | 0.02 | (0.006)*** | 0.02 | (0.008)*** | 0.00 | (0.003) |
| Total credits attempted, Y2–Y6 | 0.27 | (0.336) | 0.53 | (0.423) | 0.03 | (0.165) |
| Total credits earned, Y2–Y6 | 0.28 | (0.262) | 0.51 | (0.327) | 0.01 | (0.133) |
| Earned certificate, by Y6 | 0.00 | (0.003) | 0.01 | (0.004)* | −0.003 | (0.001)** |
| Earned AA/AS, by Y6 | 0.01 | (0.005)* | 0.01 | (0.006)* | 0.00 | (0.002) |
| Transferred: Pub/NFP 4-yr, by Y6 | 0.01 | (0.006) | 0.01 | (0.008) | 0.00 | (0.003) |
| Transferred: For-profit, by Y6 | 0.00 | (0.002) | 0.00 | (0.003) | 0.00 | (0.001) |
| Quarterly earnings ($), Y2–Y6 | 1 | (45) | 70 | (64) | 3 | (24) |
| Sample size | 13,453 | 25,525 | 34,752 | |||
Source: Authors’ calculations using restricted SCCS administrative data, 2004–2010 first-time fall entrants who initially enrolled full-time.
Notes: Pseudo-impacts on predicted outcomes are taken from separate regressions following our main RD, RD-DID, and DID specifications (with no other covariates included) with the predicted outcome as the dependent variable. Predicted outcomes are obtained by first running regressions to predict each outcome using all available covariates (for a full list of covariates included, see Online Appendix Table B1).