Table 4.
DID Estimated Effects of Failing GPA Performance Standard at End of Year 1
| Baseline DID |
DID Allowing for Heterogeneity by GPA |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 < GPA< 2.5 |
Main Effect of Aided*Below2.0 |
Additional Effect for those Further Below (1.5–1.85 GPA) |
Additional Effect for those Furthest Below (1.0–1.5 GPA) |
|||||
| Outcome | Coef. | (SE) | Coef. | (SE) | Coef. | (SE) | Coef. | (SE) |
| Year 2 | ||||||||
| Enrolled, fall Y2 | −0.06 | (0.01)*** | −0.04 | (0.02) | −0.01 | (0.02) | −0.04 | (0.02)* |
| Term GPA, fall Y2 | 0.03 | (0.02) | 0.11 | (0.05)** | −0.07 | (0.05) | −0.09 | (0.05)* |
| Credits attempted, fall Y2 | −0.66 | (0.13)*** | −0.79 | (0.32)** | 0.21 | (0.34) | 0.08 | (0.33) |
| Credits earned, fall Y2 | −0.06 | (0.11) | −0.18 | (0.29) | 0.20 | (0.28) | 0.08 | (0.30) |
| Quarterly earnings ($), Y2 | −33 | (41) | −203 | (92)** | 250 | (91)*** | 132 | (92) |
| Year 3 | ||||||||
| Still enrolled, end of Y3 | −0.04 | (0.01)*** | −0.04 | (0.03) | −0.01 | (0.03) | 0.01 | (0.03) |
| Cumulative GPA, end of Y3 | 0.00 | (0.01) | 0.04 | (0.02)** | −0.04 | (0.02)* | −0.05 | (0.02)*** |
| Credits attempted, Y2–Y3 | −2.27 | (0.41)*** | −2.65 | (1.04)** | 0.16 | (1.12) | 0.63 | (1.11) |
| Credits earned, Y2–Y3 | −0.58 | (0.35)* | −0.69 | (0.96) | −0.02 | (0.99) | 0.25 | (1.00) |
| Quarterly earnings ($), Y2–Y3 | −91 | (41)** | −241 | (90)*** | 266 | (92)*** | 80 | (95) |
| Year 6 | ||||||||
| Still enrolled, end of Y6 | −0.01 | (0.01)** | −0.01 | (0.02) | −0.01 | (0.02) | 0.00 | (0.02) |
| Cumulative GPA, end of Y6 | −0.01 | (0.01) | 0.03 | (0.02) | −0.03 | (0.02) | −0.05 | (0.02)** |
| Total credits attempted, Y2–Y6 | −3.36 | (0.59)*** | −3.40 | (1.40)** | −0.04 | (1.47) | 0.12 | (1.42) |
| Total credits earned, Y2–Y6 | −1.40 | (0.46)*** | −1.35 | (1.17) | −0.07 | (1.19) | −0.06 | (1.17) |
| Earned certificate, by Y6 | −0.02 | (0.01)*** | −0.03 | (0.02) | 0.01 | (0.02) | 0.01 | (0.02) |
| Earned AA/AS, by Y6 | 0.00 | (0.01) | −0.03 | (0.02) | 0.03 | (0.02) | 0.05 | (0.02)** |
| Transferred: Pub/NFP 4-yr, by Y6 | 0.01 | (0.01) | −0.01 | (0.02) | 0.02 | (0.02) | 0.02 | (0.02) |
| Transferred: For-profit, by Y6 | 0.00 | (0.00) | −0.01 | (0.01) | 0.01 | (0.01) | 0.01 | (0.01) |
| Quarterly earnings ($), Y2–Y6 | −111 | (49)** | −203 | (125) | $58 | (125) | 53 | (127) |
| Sample size | 34,752 | 34,752 | ||||||
Source: Authors’ calculations using restricted SCCS administrative data, 2004–2010 first-time fall entrants who initially enrolled full-time.
Notes: Robust standard errors clustered by institution–year in parentheses. All specifications limited to those with first-year GPA between 1.0 and 2.5. In addition to the main treatment interaction (Aided*Below), all specifications include fixed effects for first-year GPA bin in increments of 0.05, an indicator for aid recipients, and all covariates listed in Table 2: age, gender, race dummies, placement test scores if available, placement test flags, flag for predicted remedial need, flag for ever dual enrolled, degree intent at entry, major at entry, first-year credits attempted, first-year employment status, and first-year earnings. For term-GPA estimates, term GPA is imputed to the last known cumulative GPA (this ensures that any impacts on this measure come only from students who reenroll without introducing attrition bias; see Online Appendix Table B3 for alternative approaches to computing the fall of Year 2 term-GPA impact). Fall Year 2 credits attempted/completed are zero if the student is not enrolled. The coefficients in the Columns 2–4 columns are from a separate specification that separates the treatment effect into a main effect of Aided*Below2.0, with additional interactions for those further below [Aided*Below*(1.5 – 1.85 GPA)] and furthest below [Aided*Below*(1.0 – 1.5 GPA)] the cutoff. See text for details.