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. 2024 Mar 8;15:2135. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5

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© Battelle Memorial Institute, Chen, Rasch, Fu, Kravitz, Cassano, Maslowski 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — a Arctic AR frequency trend during 1981–2021 in ERA5. The decomposed dynamical and thermodynamical contributions are shown in (b) and (c), respectively. d The observed trend in column-integrated water vapor (IWV) during 1981–2021 in ERA5. Stippled areas in (a), (b), (c), and (d) indicate significant trends at the 0.05 level based on the Student’s t-test. e Time series of area-average AR frequency over the Atlantic sector (solid lines; area outlined by the red box in (a) and Pacific sector (dashed lines; area outlined by the magenta box in (a). The black lines in (e) are the mean linear trends of the two reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and MERRA-2). The ensemble mean trends over both the Atlantic sector and Pacific sector are significant at the 0.05 level based on the Student’s t-test.