Table 3.
Test set results for clinical and proteomic variables as OA diagnostics.
| DISCOVERY ANALYSES (TRAINING SET) | VALIDATION ANALYSES (TESTING SET) | SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FNIH WOMAC pain=0 subset | SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FNIH WOMAC pain >0 subset | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | TRAINING SET ROC-AUCs (95% CIs) | TRAINING SET PR-AUCs (95% CIs) | TESTING SET ROC-AUCs (95% CIs) | TESTING SET PR-AUCs (95% CIs) | TESTING SET ROC-AUCs (95% CIs) | TESTING SET PR-AUCs (95% CIs) | TESTING SET ROC-AUCs (95% CIs) | TESTING SET PR-AUCs (95% CIs) |
| BMI | 0.657 (0.588, 0.721) | 0.886 (0.848, 0.926) | 0.570 (0.473, 0.665) | 0.812 (0.747, 0.882) | 0.460 (0.348, 0.58) | 0.547 (0.442, 0.678) | 0.629 (0.524, 0.73) | 0.767 (0.680, 0.864) |
| BMI, age, sex | 0.689 (0.62, 0.753) | 0.893 (0.856, 0.932) | 0.593 (0.497, 0.687) | 0.823 (0.757, 0.893) | 0.515 (0.405, 0.629) | 0.582 (0.472, 0.725) | 0.636 (0.533, 0.732) | 0.773 (0.687, 0.868) |
| ACTG | 0.757 (0.697, 0.811) | 0.934 (0.906, 0.956) | 0.705 (0.612, 0.788) | 0.897 (0.844, 0.941) | 0.697 (0.591, 0.793) | 0.750 (0.633, 0.855) | 0.709 (0.617, 0.798) | 0.854 (0.780, 0.917) |
| ACTG + BMI | 0.776 (0.719, 0.825) | 0.942 (0.92, 0.96) | 0.703 (0.608, 0.787) | 0.884 (0.828, 0.936) | 0.650 (0.537, 0.754) | 0.688 (0.563, 0.813) | 0.733 (0.635, 0.822) | 0.848 (0.766, 0.919) |
| 23 RF peptides | 0.929 (0.9, 0.955) | 0.984 (0.977, 0.991) | 0.848 (0.766, 0.916) | 0.936 (0.884, 0.979) | 0.837 (0.751, 0.913) | 0.834 (0.717, 0.938) | 0.854 (0.771, 0.922) | 0.908 (0.833, 0.968) |
| 23 RF peptides + BMI | 0.938 (0.913, 0.961) | 0.987 (0.98, 0.992) | 0.853 (0.767, 0.923) | 0.929 (0.874, 0.979) | 0.832 (0.743, 0.913) | 0.809 (0.694, 0.932) | 0.864 (0.778, 0.932) | 0.903 (0.825, 0.972) |
| 17 uncorrelated peptides | 0.919 (0.884, 0.949) | 0.981 (0.97, 0.99) | 0.841 (0.757, 0.913) | 0.932 (0.878, 0.976) | 0.834 (0.744, 0.913) | 0.826 (0.708, 0.937) | 0.846 (0.761, 0.918) | 0.901 (0.823, 0.965) |
| 17 uncorrelated peptides + BMI | 0.925 (0.89, 0.953) | 0.982 (0.972, 0.99) | 0.845 (0.758, 0.918) | 0.926 (0.871, 0.976) | 0.829 (0.74, 0.911) | 0.807 (0.691, 0.93) | 0.854 (0.766, 0.927) | 0.897 (0.818, 0.968) |
| 8 significant peptides | 0.907 (0.871, 0.938) | 0.978 (0.967, 0.987) | 0.833 (0.751, 0.905) | 0.929 (0.876, 0.973) | 0.830 (0.738, 0.911) | 0.819 (0.700, 0.933) | 0.835 (0.749, 0.907) | 0.898 (0.819, 0.962) |
| 8 significant peptides + BMI | 0.916 (0.881, 0.945) | 0.981 (0.971, 0.989) | 0.842 (0.758, 0.914) | 0.925 (0.87, 0.975) | 0.824 (0.732, 0.906) | 0.802 (0.686, 0.927) | 0.853 (0.765, 0.925) | 0.897 (0.818, 0.968) |
23 peptides and BMI were selected based on random forest (RF)>0.9; 17 uncorrelated peptides were selected based on RF=1, WMW p value and uncorrelated status; 8 significant peptides were selected based on RF=1, WMW p value, uncorrelated status, and association with OA status in multivariable logistic regression; for the list of these sets of peptides see Table 2. 231 (39%) FNIH cases had baseline WOMAC pain scores=0