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(a) Fitted and observed number of new cases from 1 December 2019 to 8 January 2020, assuming only severe infections (20%) were detected; (b) fitted and observed number of new cases from 15 January to 8 February 2020, assuming a constant ascertainment rate; (c) predicted cumulative number of infections using our model, from 1 December 2019 to 22 January 2020, before Wuhan was locked down.
