TABLE 2.
The results of the 10‐year and lifetime scenarios for the dental caries impact for implementing the 20% sugar‐sweetened beverages (SSB) tax according to the quintile subgroups and the total population, with cost and outcomes discounted at 3%.
| Results | Quintile 1 (95%UI) | Quintile 2 (95%UI) | Quintile 3 (95%UI) | Quintile 4 (95%UI) | Quintile 5 (95%UI) | Total population (95%UI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10‐Year scenario | ||||||
| Total societal costs accrued (AUD$) | 3.4B (3.3B; 3.4B) | 3.4B (3.3B; 3.5B) | 3.4B (3.4B; 3.5B) | 3.5B (3.4B; 3.5B) | 3.5B (3.4B; 3.5B) | 16.8B (16.5B; 17.1B) |
| Total healthcare costs accrued (AUD$) | 2.7B (2.6B; 2.8B) | 2.7B (2.7B; 2.8B) | 2.8B (2.7B; 2.8B) | 2.8B (2.7B; 2.8B) | 2.8B (2.7B; 2.8B) | 13.5B (13.2B; 13.8B) |
| Total decayed teeth accrued | 15.6M (15.3M; 16.0M) | 15.8M (15.5M; 16.2M) | 16.0M (15.7M; 16.4M) | 16.2M (15.8M; 16.5M) | 16.0M (15.7M; 16.4M) | 79.0M (77.3M; 80.7M) |
| Total DALYs accrued | 213,694 (212,525; 214,863) | 209,880 (208,733; 211,028) | 202,773 (201,665; 203,881) | 196,716 (195,642; 197,791) | 200,103 (199,009; 201,196) | 1,014,517 (1,008,970; 1,020,063) |
| Total societal cost savings (AUD$) | 23.4M (22.1M; 24.7M) | 17.0M (16.0M; 18.0M) | 10.7M (10.0M; 11.5M) | 10.5M (9.7M; 11.2M) | 2.6M (2.1M; 3.0M) | 63.5M (59.4M; 67.6M) |
| Total healthcare cost savings (AUD$) | 24.5M (23.2M; 25.8M) | 11.8M (10.9M; 12.6M) | 6.8M (6.1M; 7.5M) | 6.6M (5.9M; 7.2M) | 0.3M a (0.7M; −0.1M) | 42.2M (38.7M; 45.7M) |
| Total decayed teeth averted | 161,042 (154,159; 167,924) | 125,439 (120,079; 130,799) | 94,484 (90,447; 98,520) | 93,319 (89,332; 97,305) | 54,078 (51,768, 56,387) | 510,977 (489,146; 532,808) |
| Total DALYs averted | 30.8 (29.6; 32.0) | 24.2 (23.2; 25.1) | 18.0 (17.3; 18.7) | 17.9 (17.2; 18.6) | 10.2 (9.8; 10.6) | 98.1 (94.3; 101.9) |
| Mean ICER | Dominant | |||||
| Probability of being cost‐effective for societal and healthcare perspectives b | 71.5% | |||||
| Intervention effectiveness decay threshold when the intervention is cost‐effective | 82.0% | |||||
| Lifetime scenario | ||||||
| Total societal costs accrued (AUD$) | 6.1B (5.0B; 6.2B) | 6.2B (6.1B; 6.3B) | 6.3B (6.2B; 6.4B) | 6.3B (6.2B; 6.4B) | 6.3B (6.2B; 6.4B) | 30.6B (30.1B; 31.1B) |
| Total healthcare costs accrued (AUD$) | 4.9B (4.8B; 5.0B) | 5.0B (4.9B; 5.1B) | 5.1B (5.0B; 5.1B) | 5.1B (5.0; 5.2B) | 5.1B (5.0B; 5.2B) | 24.7B (24.2B; 25.2B) |
| Total decayed teeth cases accrued | 27.3M (26.7M; 27.9M) | 27.6M (27.0M; 28.2M) | 28.1M (27.5M; 28.7M) | 28.4M (27.8M; 29.0M) | 28.1M (28.1B; 28.7B) | 138.1M (135.1M; 141.1M) |
| Total DALYs accrued | 404,710 (402,496; 406,925) | 406,913 (404,687; 409,140) | 403,987 (401,777; 406,196) | 400,541 (398,3501; 402,731) | 404,345 (402,133; 406,557) | 1,997,538 (1,986,609; 2,008,467) |
| Total societal cost savings (AUD$) | 65.7M (62.4M; 69.0M) | 46.6M (44.1M; 49.2M) | 30.3M (28.4M; 32.2M) | 30.0M (28.1M; 31.9M) | 9.2M (8.1M; 10.3M) | 176.6M (166.2M; 186.6M) |
| Total healthcare cost savings (AUD$) | 48.6M (45.8M; 51.4M) | 33.4M (31.3M; 35.6M) | 20.4M (18.8M; 22.0M) | 20.1M (18.5M; 21.8M) | 3.7M (2.7M; 4.6M) | 122.5M (113.6M; 131.5M) |
| Total decayed teeth averted | 413,740 (396,056; 431,424) | 321,052 (307,332; 334,771) | 239,788 (229,543; 250,033) | 239,295 (229,072; 249,519) | 134,626 (128,876; 140,377) | 1,309,211 (1,253,273; 1,365,149) |
| Total DALYs averted | 81.4 (77.9; 84.2) | 62.6 (60.2; 65.1) | 46.3 (44.5; 48.1) | 46.5 (44.7; 48.3) | 25.9 (24.9; 26.9) | 254.9 (245.0; 264.8) |
| Mean ICER | Dominant | |||||
| Probability of being cost‐effective for societal and healthcare perspectives b | 74.8% | |||||
| Intervention effectiveness decay threshold when the intervention is cost‐effective | 91.5% | |||||
Note: Dominant: the intervention is cost‐saving and health promoting.
Abbreviations: AUD$, 2020 Australian dollars; B, billion; DALY, disability adjusted life year; ICER, incremental cost effectiveness ratio; M, million; UI, uncertainty interval.
a
Negative value indicates net incremental cost.
b
Willingness‐to‐pay threshold of AUD$50,000 per DALY averted.