TABLE A3.

Comparison of observed and estimated relative abundance (%) of two multi‐locus sequence types (STs) in the three sources and “unsampled source” (where relevant). ST50 and ST48 were the first and fourth most common STs in humans in our study. The relative abundance is the percentage of all Campylobacter isolates from a given source that belong to the indicated sequence type

Model a	Sequence type 50				Sequence type 48
	Ruminant	Pig	Chicken	Unsampled	Ruminant	Pig	Chicken	Unsampled
Observed	24	11	5.2	NA	1.1	0.0	0.8	NA
	(21/88)	(5/44)	(25/480)	(0/0)	(1/88)	(0/44)	(4/480)	(0/0)
M1	8.4	2.8	4.1	0.6	0.8	0.5	1.0	0.7
	(5.4–12.0)	(1.1–5.4)	(2.8–5.8)	(1.8 × 10−2 − 2.2)	(0.1–2.2)	(1.1 × 10−02 − 1.7)	(0.4–1.8)	(1.8 × 10−2 − 2.5)
M2	8.4	2.8	4.1	NA	0.8	0.5	1.0	NA
	(5.3–12.2)	(1.0–5.1)	(2.8–5.8)		(0.1–2.2)	(1.2 × 10−2 − 1.8)	(0.4–1.8)
M3	20	8.6	5.2	0.8	1.4	0.2	1.0	2.8
	(13–28)	(2.9–17)	(3.3–7.3)	(2.3 × 10−16 − 8.3)	(0.1–4.5)	(6.9 × 10−17 − 1.8)	(0.3–2.0)	(7.1 × 10−14 − 13.9)
M4	19.3	8.5	5.1	NA	1.5	0.2	0.9	NA
	(13–27)	(2.8–17)	(3.4–7.2)		(0.1–4.5)	(2.0 × 10−16 − 2.0)	(0.3–2.0)
M5 and M8	8.4	2.7	4.0	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.8	0.6
	(5.3–12)	(1.0–5.3)	(2.6–5.6)	(1.5 × 10−2 − 2.1)	(0.1–2.1)	(1.2 × 10−2 − 1.7)	(0.2–1.6)	(1.5 × 10−2 − 2.1)
M6 and M9	8.4	2.7	4.0	NA	0.8	0.5	0.8	NA
	(5.3–12)	(1.0–5.3)	(2.6–5.6)		(0.1–2.1)	(1.2 × 10−2 − 1.7)	(0.2–1.6)
M7 and M10	16.6	8.8	4.7	NA	0.8	0.3	0.7	NA
	(15–18)	(7.3–11)	(4.4–5.1)		(0.8–0.9)	(0.2–0.4)	(0.6–0.7)

Note: Observed values are the percentage of isolates of the given sequence type with numbers given in parentheses. The point estimates for the models are the posterior mean with 95% credible intervals.

^a The pairs of models M5 and M8, M6 and M9, and M7 and M10 use the same model for relative abundance of sequence types in sources. See Table 1 for a full description of the models.