TABLE A4.

Comparison of observed and estimated relative abundance (%) of multi‐locus sequence types (STs) in the three sources and “unsampled source” (where relevant). The relative abundance is the percentage of all Campylobacter isolates from a given source that belong to the indicated sequence type

Model a	Sequence type 827				Sequence type 2398
	Ruminant	Pig	Chicken	Unsampled	Ruminant	Pig	Chicken	Unsampled
Observed	9.1	4.5	9.6	NA	0.0	0.0	0.0	NA
	(8/88)	(2/44)	(46/480)	(0/0)	(0/88)	(0/44)	(0/480)	(0/0)
M1	3.4	1.4	7.1	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.9
	(1.5–6.0)	(0.3–3.2)	(5.2–9.2)	(1.6 × 10−2 − 2.0)	(1.2 × 10−2 − 1.6)	(1.3 × 10−2 − 1.9)	(1.4 × 10−2 − 0.9)	(3.0 × 10−2 − 2.9)
M2	3.4	1.4	7.1	NA	0.5	0.6	0.3	NA
	(1.6–5.8)	(0.3–3.3)	(5.2–9.3)		(1.5 × 10−2 − 1.7)	(1.7 × 10−2 − 2.0)	(2.7 × 10−2 − 0.9)
M3	7.1	3.5	9.2	0.5	0.2	0.2	2.9 × 10−2	5.0
	(3.2–12.3)	(0.5–9.4)	(6.8–12.0)	(1.0 × 10−16 − 4.3)	(1.3 × 10−16 − 1.9)	(1.4 × 10−16 − 2.4)	(1.3 × 10−16 − 0.3)	(3.9 × 10−6 − 15.3)
M4	7.0	3.4	9.2	NA	0.9	0.7	0.1	NA
	(3.2–12.2)	(0.4–9.2)	(6.9–11.9)		(1.3 × 10−13 − 3.2)	(1.1 × 10−15 − 4.9)	(4.6 × 10−17 − 0.5)
M5 & M8	3.4	1.4	7.2	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.6
	(1.6–5.9)	(0.3–3.3)	(5.3–9.3)	(1.5 × 10−2 − 2.1)	(9.7 × 10−3 − 1.4)	(1.2 × 10−2 − 1.7)	(3.9 × 10−3 − 0.6)	(1.5 × 10−2 − 2.1)
M6 and M9	3.4	1.4	7.2	NA	0.4	0.5	0.2	NA
	(1.6–5.9)	(0.3–3.3)	(5.3–9.3)		(9.7 × 10−3 − 1.4)	(1.2 × 10−2 − 1.7)	(3.9 × 10−3 − 0.6)
M7 and M10	7.3	5.7	7.8	NA	2.1 × 10−11	5.7 × 10−12	1.5 × 10−11	NA
	(7.0–7.6)	(5.0–6.3)	(7.5–8.0)		(8.9 × 10−12 − 4.4 × 10−11)	(1.4 × 10−12 − 1.3 × 10−11)	(6.8 × 10−12 − 3.1 × 10−11)

Note: Observed values are the percentage of isolates of the given sequence type with numbers given in parentheses. The point estimates for the models are the posterior mean with 95% credible intervals.

^a The pairs of models M5 and M8, M6 and M9, and M7 and M10 use the same model for relative abundance of sequence types in sources. See Table 1 for a full description of the models.