Abstract
Objective.
Growing evidence suggests increasing frequencies of autoimmunity and certain autoimmune diseases, but findings are limited by the lack of systematic data and evolving approaches and definitions. This study was undertaken to investigate whether the prevalence of antinuclear antibodies (ANA), the most common biomarker of autoimmunity, changed over a recent 25-year span in the US.
Methods.
Serum ANA were measured by standard indirect immunofluorescence assays on HEp-2 cells in 13,519 participants age ≥12 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with approximately one-third from each of 3 time periods: 1988-1991, 1999-2004, and 2011-2012. We used logistic regression adjusted for sex, age, race/ethnicity, and survey-design variables to estimate changes in ANA prevalence across the time periods.
Results.
The prevalence of ANA was 11.0% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 9.7-12.6%) in 1988-1991, 11.4% (95% CI 10.2-12.8%) in 1999-2004, and 16.1% (95% CI 14.4-18.0%) in 2011-2012 (P for trend <0.0001), which corresponds to ~22.3, ~26.6, and ~41.5 million affected individuals, respectively. Among adolescents age 12-19 years, ANA prevalence increased substantially, with odds ratios of 2.07 (95% CI 1.18-3.64) and 2.77 (95% CI 1.56-4.91) in the second and third time periods relative to the first (P for trend 0.0004). ANA prevalence increased in both sexes (especially in men), older adults (age ≥50 years), and non-Hispanic whites. These increases in ANA prevalence were not explained by concurrent trends in weight (obesity/overweight), smoking exposure, or alcohol consumption.
Conclusion.
The prevalence of ANA in the US has increased considerably in recent years. Additional studies to determine factors underlying these increases could elucidate causes of autoimmunity and enable the development of preventative measures.
INTRODUCTION
Autoimmune diseases are a diverse group of disorders characterized by damaging immune responses to self-antigens and, for the most part, are of unknown etiology (1, 2). They are thought to impact 3-5% of the population, with increasing rates observed several decades ago (3). Recent studies suggest continued increases for certain autoimmune diseases (4–6), but it is unclear whether these trends are due to changes in recognition and diagnosis, or if they are true temporal changes in incidence (7).
As the most common biomarker of autoimmunity, antinuclear antibodies (ANA) are observed in patients with many autoimmune diseases. ANA are also seen in the general population where they have been associated with demographic factors such as older age, female sex, and parity (8, 9), genetic factors (10), and various environmental exposures, including chemicals, infections, and medications (11–13). To investigate whether the prevalence of autoimmunity is increasing over time in the US population, we used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the prevalence of ANA over a 25-year span from 1988 to 2012.
SUBJECTS AND METHODS
Study population.
We measured ANA in 13,519 persons age ≥12 years sampled from 3 NHANES time periods: 1988-1991 (4,727 persons), 1999-2004 (4,527 persons), and 2011-2012 (4,265 persons). The NHANES sampled nationally representative members of the noninstitutionalized US population and provided weights to adjust for nonresponse and the probability of selection into each ANA subsample (14). All participants completed questionnaires, and most provided blood specimens. Available data included demographic characteristics, health covariates, measured factors (e.g., height and weight), and constructed variables such as body mass index (BMI). The NHANES protocol was approved by the Human Subjects Institutional Review Board of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Ethics committee approval.
Written informed consent was obtained from all participants. This study was approved by the US CDC research ethics board.
ANA assessment.
Serum samples were shipped with dry ice and stored at −80°C until evaluated by indirect immunofluorescence at a 1:80 dilution using the NOVA Lite HEp-2 ANA slide with DAPI kit (INOVA Diagnostics), with a highly specific fluorescein isothiocyanate-conjugated secondary antibody (goat anti-human IgG). Images were captured using the NOVA View automated fluorescence microscope system (INOVA Diagnostics) and stored digitally. Immunofluorescence staining intensities were graded using a 0-4 scale compared to standard references (8). Participants who had grades of 1-4 were positive for ANA; those with grades of 3 or 4 were further assessed by sequential ANA titers up to 1:1280 dilution. ANA patterns, including nuclear, cytoplasmic, or mitotic, were defined according to international consensus (15). All serum samples were assayed using the same methods in a single laboratory. Readings were made independently by at least 2 experienced evaluators (who were blinded with regard to sample characteristics and time period), who agreed on >95% of the intensities and patterns; differences were resolved by consensus or adjudicated by a third blinded rater (EKLC) who was also blinded with regard to sample characteristics. Repeat testing of random samples showed >98% concordance.
Participant characteristics.
We considered sex, age, and race/ethnicity as correlates of ANA and possible explanatory variables or modifiers of ANA time trends. Age was categorized by decade for covariate adjustment and categorized into 3 groups for stratification: adolescents (age 12-19 years), younger adults (age 20-49 years), or older adults (age ≥50 years). Race/ethnicity was categorized as non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic African American, Mexican American, or other. Using previous covariate definitions (8), we also examined BMI, smoking exposure, alcohol consumption, poverty income ratio (PIR), and education. The NHANES includes limited data on autoimmune diseases, but self-reports of physician-diagnosed thyroid disease were available for all participants age ≥20 years across the 3 time periods.
Statistical analysis.
A dichotomous response variable was created by treating an ANA grade of 0 as negative and grades 1-4 as positive. We estimated time period-specific ANA prevalence overall and in subgroups defined by participant characteristics. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were derived from weighted logistic regression models for ANA positivity. The number of people age ≥12 years who were positive for ANA in the US population was estimated by multiplying the US Census Bureau’s estimate of the time period-specific size of the NHANES target population by our time period-specific overall estimate of ANA prevalence. For each time period, we evaluated ANA associations with characteristic categories using prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs from weighted logistic models adjusted for sex, age, and race/ethnicity. The overall association of each characteristic with ANA was assessed by an F-test from a statistical contrast.
We investigated ANA time trends overall and in subgroups to explore trend modifiers. We fitted 2 logistic models to data from all 3 time periods and both models were adjusted for sex, age, and race/ethnicity. The first model included a categorical covariate for time period, from which ORs and 95% CIs were calculated to assess how ANA differed in the second and third time periods relative to the first. The second model included a quantitative covariate for the time between period midpoints (0, 12, or 22 years) and ANA time trends were assessed using a χ2-test. These exploratory analyses did not formally test if ANA time trends differed across subgroups. Supplemental analyses examined time trends in thyroid disease and the association between thyroid disease and ANA.
All analyses were performed using SAS version 9.4 and all analyses accounted for the survey design variables (strata, clusters, and sampling weights). The sampling weights allowed for population-representative estimates, adjusted for nonresponse and selection probabilities (14). We used the SurveyLogistic procedure to perform the logistic analyses, with domain statements to properly handle the sampling weights in subgroup analyses. Variance estimates for the 95% CIs were obtained using the Taylor series method. Reported P values were 2-sided and unadjusted for multiple comparisons, though multiplying the P values by the number of comparisons would provide a conservative Bonferroni-type correction.
RESULTS
Participant characteristics and ANA prevalence.
Sample characteristics, for each time period separately and combined, are shown in Table 1. Certain characteristics changed over time (e.g., smoking decreased, whereas obesity and alcohol consumption increased). A total of 1,857 (13.7%) of the 13,519 participants were positive for ANA.
Table 1.
Unweighted ANA positivity counts, sample sizes, and percentages of participants in each characteristic category by time period.
| Period 1: 1988-1991 |
Period 2: 1999-2004 |
Period 3: 2011-2012 |
Combined |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of Participants: | No. of Participants: | No. of Participants: | No. of Participants: | |||||
| Characteristic a | ANA+ | Total (%) | ANA+ | Total (%) | ANA+ | Total (%) | ANA+ | Total (%) |
| Overall | 643 | 4,727 (100) | 545 | 4,527 (100) | 669 | 4,265 (100) | 1,857 | 13,519 (100) |
| Sex | ||||||||
| Male | 216 | 2,363 (50.0) | 160 | 2,180 (48.2) | 237 | 2,098 (49.2) | 613 | 6,641 (49.1) |
| Female | 427 | 2,364 (50.0) | 385 | 2,347 (51.8) | 432 | 2,167 (50.8) | 1,244 | 6,878 (50.9) |
| Age (years) | ||||||||
| Adolescent (12-19) | 45 | 676 (14.3) | 102 | 1,098 (24.3) | 87 | 767 (18.0) | 234 | 2,541 (18.8) |
| Younger Adult (20-49) | 248 | 2,218 (46.9) | 176 | 1,827 (40.4) | 239 | 1,808 (42.4) | 663 | 5,853 (43.3) |
| Older Adult (≥ 50) | 350 | 1,833 (38.8) | 267 | 1,602 (35.4) | 343 | 1,690 (39.6) | 960 | 5,125 (37.9) |
| Race/Ethnicity | ||||||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 252 | 2,060 (43.6) | 240 | 2,060 (45.5) | 256 | 1,566 (36.7) | 748 | 5,686 (42.1) |
| Non-Hispanic African American | 176 | 1,164 (24.6) | 131 | 926 (20.5) | 181 | 1,033 (24.2) | 488 | 3,123 (23.1) |
| Mexican American | 196 | 1,354 (28.6) | 137 | 1,158 (25.6) | 61 | 504 (11.8) | 394 | 3,016 (22.3) |
| Other | 19 | 149 ( 3.2) | 37 | 383 ( 8.5) | 171 | 1,162 (27.3) | 227 | 1,694 (12.5) |
| Body Mass Index (BMI) | ||||||||
| Underweight/Healthy | 293 | 2,191 (46.5) | 224 | 1,778 (39.4) | 217 | 1,555 (37.1) | 734 | 5,524 (41.2) |
| Overweight | 197 | 1,483 (31.5) | 151 | 1,405 (31.1) | 204 | 1,214 (28.9) | 552 | 4,102 (30.6) |
| Obese | 150 | 1,036 (22.0) | 169 | 1,334 (29.5) | 232 | 1,427 (34.0) | 551 | 3,797 (28.3) |
| Smoking Exposure | ||||||||
| None | 88 | 411 (9.1) | 260 | 1,847 (41.1) | 399 | 2,366 (55.5) | 747 | 4,624 (34.8) |
| Second-Hand | 352 | 2,788 (61.6) | 197 | 1,654 (36.8) | 146 | 1,039 (24.4) | 695 | 5,481 (41.3) |
| Active | 164 | 1,326 (29.3) | 86 | 998 (22.2) | 124 | 859 (20.2) | 374 | 3,183 (24.0) |
| Alcohol Consumption | ||||||||
| None | 349 | 2,009 (53.0) | 156 | 1,011 (35.2) | 161 | 814 (29.4) | 666 | 3,834 (40.7) |
| Light | 104 | 834 (22.0) | 151 | 1,184 (41.2) | 202 | 1,197 (43.3) | 457 | 3,215 (34.1) |
| Moderate/Heavy | 93 | 948 (25.0) | 46 | 676 (23.6) | 101 | 754 (27.3) | 240 | 2,378 (25.2) |
Abbreviations: ANA = antinuclear antibodies; ANA+ = positive for ANA.
NOTE: Some groups were oversampled in certain cycles (e.g., adolescents in 1999-2004 and Asian-Americans in 2011-2012).
BMI was categorized as underweight/healthy, overweight, or obese using standard cut points of <25, 25 to <30, or ≥30 kg/m2 for persons ≥20 years old and by applying 2000 CDC growth chart percentiles of <85, 85 to <95, or ≥95 for persons 12-19 years old. Smoking exposure was based on current measured cotinine levels and classified as none (<0.05 ng/ml), second-hand (0.05 to 15 ng/ml), or active (>15 ng/ml). Alcohol consumption (available for ages ≥20 years) was based on the number of drinks in the past year and classified as none (<12 total), light (1-3 per week), or moderate/heavy (>3 per week).
Adjustment for the survey design variables, but not for covariates, yielded population-representative ANA prevalence estimates of 11.0% (95% CI 9.7-12.6%) in 1988-1991, 11.4% (95% CI 10.2-12.8%) in 1999-2004, and 16.1% (95% CI 14.4-18.0%) in 2011-2012 for persons age ≥12 years (Figure 1 and Table 2). These estimates correspond to ~22.3 million (95% CI 19.5-25.5), ~26.6 million (95% CI 23.8-29.8), and ~41.5 million (95% CI 37.2-46.4) ANA-positive persons, respectively. Time period-specific estimates of ANA prevalence in various subgroups are also shown in Figure 1 and Table 2.
Figure 1.
Estimated prevalence of antinuclear antibodies (ANA) by time period in the US population and selected subgroups. Circles represent weighted estimates of ANA prevalence and vertical colored lines show the 95% confidence intervals for period 1 (1988-1991) (blue), period 2 (1999-2004) (yellow), and period 3 (2011-2012) (red). The estimates for the 3 time periods are connected by black lines to visualize time trends. For each time period, the prevalence estimate was derived from a logistic regression model for ANA positivity that adjusted for the survey design variables (strata, clusters, and sampling weights) and a single categorical covariate for the characteristic defining the subgroup. Participants with missing subgroup data (for BMI, smoking exposure, or alcohol consumption) were excluded from those analyses. The P value for an ANA time trend is displayed below each subgroup and was derived from a logistic regression model that was also adjusted for sex, age, and race/ethnicity.
Table 2.
Weighted ANA prevalence estimates for participants in characteristic-based subgroups by time period.
| Weighted Estimate of ANA Prevalence (95% CI) as a Percentage a |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristic b | Period 1: 1988-1991 | Period 2: 1999-2004 | Period 3: 2011-2012 |
| Overall | 11.0 ( 9.7 - 12.6) | 11.4 (10.2 - 12.8) | 16.1 (14.4 – 18.0) |
| Sex | |||
| Male | 6.5 (5.2- 8.0) | 6.1 (5.0- 7.5) | 11.6 (9.8 - 13.7) |
| Female | 15.3 (13.1 - 17.7) | 16.4 (14.3 - 18.7) | 20.3 (17.9 - 22.9) |
| Age (years) | |||
| Adolescent (12-19) | 5.0 (3.1 - 7.9) | 9.7 (7.5 - 12.5) | 12.4 (9.2 - 16.4) |
| Younger Adult (20-49) | 10.3 (8.6 - 12.3) | 9.1 (7.5 – 10.9) | 13.4 (11.2 - 15.9) |
| Older Adult (≥ 50) | 15.3 (13.1 - 17.8) | 15.8 (12.8 - 19.3) | 20.6 (17.8 - 23.6) |
| Race/Ethnicity | |||
| Non-Hispanic White | 10.2 (8.6 - 12.0) | 11.2 (9.6 – 13.0) | 16.9 (14.7 – 19.4) |
| Non-Hispanic African American | 15.0 (13.4 - 16.7) | 15.1 (12.6 – 18.0) | 17.4 (13.8 - 21.6) |
| Mexican American | 13.6 (11.5 - 16.0) | 11.7 (9.6 - 14.1) | 11.9 (9.8 – 14.4) |
| Other | 12.0 (6.2 - 21.9) | 9.3 (6.6 – 12.9) | 14.0 (11.9 - 16.4) |
| Body Mass Index (BMI) | |||
| Underweight/Healthy | 11.4 (9.5 - 13.5) | 12.1 (10.4 - 13.9) | 14.1 (12.4 - 15.9) |
| Overweight | 9.5 (7.3 - 12.4) | 9.7 (7.9 - 12.0) | 17.6 (14.9 – 20.7) |
| Obese | 12.5 (10.1 - 15.4) | 12.3 (10.2 - 14.8) | 16.6 (13.0 - 20.9) |
| Smoking Exposure | |||
| None | 18.7 (12.6 - 26.8) | 13.4 (11.3 - 15.8) | 17.4 (14.5 - 20.6) |
| Second-Hand | 11.2 (9.5 - 13.2) | 12.6 (10.3 - 15.2) | 15.4 (13.1 – 18.1) |
| Active | 8.5 (6.2 - 11.5) | 7.4 (5.6 - 9.7) | 13.3 (11.0 - 15.8) |
| Alcohol Consumption | |||
| None | 15.3 (12.6 - 18.3) | 15.1 (11.8 – 19.1) | 21.5 (16.6 – 27.4) |
| Light | 12.2 (9.8 - 15.1) | 11.6 (9.8 – 13.8) | 16.4 (14.0 – 19.2) |
| Moderate/Heavy | 6.1 (4.3 - 8.6) | 5.9 (4.2 - 8.3) | 15.4 (12.1 – 19.3) |
Abbreviations: ANA = antinuclear antibodies; CI = confidence interval.
The weighted estimate of ANA prevalence was derived from a logistic regression model that adjusted for the survey design variables (strata, clusters, and sampling weights) and a categorical covariate for the characteristic of interest but not for other covariates. The estimated numbers of persons with ANA in the U.S. (with 95% CI) in millions are: 22.3 (CI=19.5-25.5) for Period 1, 26.6 (CI=23.8-29.8) for Period 2, and 41.5 (CI=37.2-46.4) for Period 3.
BMI was categorized as underweight/healthy, overweight, or obese using standard cut points of <25, 25 to <30, or ≥30 kg/m2 for persons ≥20 years old and by applying 2000 CDC growth chart percentiles of <85, 85 to <95, or ≥95 for persons 12-19 years old. Smoking exposure was based on current measured cotinine levels and classified as none (<0.05 ng/ml), second-hand (0.05 to 15 ng/ml), or active (>15 ng/ml). Alcohol consumption (available for ages ≥20 years) was based on the number of drinks in the past year and classified as none (<12 total), light (1-3 per week), or moderate/heavy (>3 per week).
ANA correlates.
Weighted but unadjusted analyses supported several known associations, including higher ANA prevalence in females and older adults (Table 2). Among non-Hispanics, African Americans had a higher ANA prevalence than whites in 1988-1991, but that difference was attenuated in 2011-2012 consequent to the greater increase over the same time period among whites. Also, ANA prevalence was higher in non-smokers than active smokers, and in nondrinkers than moderate/heavy drinkers.
Covariate-adjusted models confirmed several ANA correlates (Table 3). All 3 time periods showed an ANA association with sex (P < 0.0001) and age (P ≤ 0.003), whereas evidence of an ANA association with other characteristics was either lacking or varied across time periods. The odds of having ANA were 2-3 times higher in females than males, with OR 2.53 (95% CI 1.90-3.36) in 1988-1991, OR 2.97 (95% CI 2.28-3.87) in 1999-2004, and OR 1.92 (95% CI 1.57-2.36) in 2011-2012. Similarly, the time period-specific ANA odds ratios for older adults relative to adolescents were OR 3.63 (95% CI 2.02-6.55), OR 1.75 (95% CI 1.19-2.56), and OR 1.76 (95% CI 1.20-2.56), respectively. Relative to non-Hispanic whites, the odds of having ANA were higher for non-Hispanic African Americans (OR 1.75; CI 1.33-2.31) and Mexican Americans (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.40-2.50) in 1988-1991, but racial/ethnic differences diminished in 1999-2004 and 2011-2012. Compared with being underweight/healthy, the time period-specific ANA associations with being overweight or obese transitioned from inverse to positive across the 3 time periods, though most CIs included the null value of 1.0. The ANA associations for active smokers versus nonsmokers were inverse in all 3 time periods, but most 95% CIs included 1.0. Compared with no alcohol consumption, moderate/heavy drinking was inversely associated with ANA in 1988-1991 (OR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.92) and 1999-2004 (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.41-0.93), but not in 2011-2012, as support for an overall ANA association with alcohol consumption decreased over time.
Table 3.
Covariate-adjusted odds-ratio estimates of associations between ANA prevalence and the indicated characteristics by time period. a
| ANA Prevalence Odds Ratio (95% CI) for Characteristic Category |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristic b | Period 1: 1988-1991 | Period 2: 1999-2004 | Period 3: 2011-2012 | |
| Sex | ||||
| Male | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Female | 2.53 (1.90 - 3.36) | 2.97 (2.28 - 3.87) | 1.92 (1.57 - 2.36) | |
| P: | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 | < 0.0001 | |
| Age (years) | ||||
| Adolescent (12-19) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Younger Adult (20-49) | 2.27 (1.43 - 3.62) | 0.92 (0.62 - 1.37) | 1.07 (0.77 - 1.49) | |
| Older Adult (≥ 50) | 3.63 (2.02 - 6.55) | 1.75 (1.19 - 2.56) | 1.76 (1.20 - 2.56) | |
| P: | 0.0007 | 0.002 | 0.003 | |
| Race/Ethnicity | ||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Non-Hispanic African American | 1.75 (1.33 - 2.31) | 1.52 (1.14 – 2.03) | 1.08 (0.84 - 1.40) | |
| Mexican American | 1.87 (1.40 - 2.50) | 1.31 (0.99 - 1.72) | 0.80 (0.60 - 1.08) | |
| Other | 1.39 (0.62 - 3.13) | 0.87 (0.57 - 1.33) | 0.87 (0.67 - 1.11) | |
| P: | 0.0007 | 0.02 | 0.34 | |
| Body Mass Index (BMI) | ||||
| Underweight/Healthy | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Overweight | 0.74 (0.54 - 1.02) | 0.81 (0.60 - 1.10) | 1.29 (1.03 - 1.61) | |
| Obese | 0.90 (0.65 - 1.25) | 0.99 (0.77 - 1.27) | 1.15 (0.86 - 1.54) | |
| P: | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.04 | |
| Smoking Exposure | ||||
| None | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Second-Hand | 0.68 (0.44 - 1.05) | 1.12 (0.85 - 1.48) | 1.03 (0.80 - 1.33) | |
| Active | 0.56 (0.31 - 1.01) | 0.69 (0.49 - 0.96) | 0.82 (0.54 - 1.24) | |
| P: | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.52 | |
| Alcohol Consumption | ||||
| None | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Light | 1.07 (0.70 - 1.63) | 0.97 (0.67 - 1.41) | 0.90 (0.64 - 1.27) | |
| Moderate/Heavy | 0.56 (0.34 - 0.92) | 0.62 (0.41 - 0.93) | 0.93 (0.62 - 1.38) | |
| P: | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.82 | |
Abbreviations: ANA = antinuclear antibodies; CI = confidence interval.
The ANA association with each characteristic category was assessed by estimating a period-specific odds ratio under a logistic regression model that adjusted for the survey design variables (strata, clusters, and sampling weights) and categorical covariates for sex, age, race/ethnicity, and the characteristic of interest. The P value for assessing a characteristic’s overall association with ANA in a given time period was based on an F-test from a statistical contrast.
BMI was categorized as underweight/healthy, overweight, or obese using standard cut points of <25, 25 to <30, or ≥30 kg/m2 for persons ≥20 years old and by applying 2000 CDC growth chart percentiles of <85, 85 to <95, or ≥95 for persons 12-19 years old. Smoking exposure was based on current measured cotinine levels and classified as none (<0.05 ng/ml), second-hand (0.05 to 15 ng/ml), or active (>15 ng/ml). Alcohol consumption (available for ages ≥20 years) was based on the number of drinks in the past year and classified as none (<12 total), light (1-3 per week), or moderate/heavy (>3 per week).
ANA time trends.
There was strong evidence that ANA prevalence increased over time, primarily from the second time period to the third time period (Table 4). After adjustment for covariates, estimated ORs for the second time period and third time period relative to the first time period were 1.02 (95% CI 0.84-1.24) and 1.50 (95% CI 1.23-1.82), respectively, reflecting an overall ANA time trend (P < 0.0001). In stratified analyses, the ANA time trend was seen in both males (P = 0.0001) and females (P = 0.008). Within age subgroups, the time trend was clearly apparent in adolescents (P = 0.0004), with ORs that steadily increased across all time periods (from 1.00 to 2.07 to 2.77). Although we observed no time trend in adults 20-49 years, ANA prevalence increased over time in adults age ≥50 years (P = 0.002). ANA time trends were also apparent in other subgroups (Table 4), notably non-Hispanic whites, overweight participants, those exposed to secondhand smoke, and moderate/heavy drinkers. Further adjustment for BMI, smoking exposure, or alcohol consumption (in addition to sex, age, and race/ethnicity) had little impact on the ANA time trends.
Table 4.
Covariate-adjusted assessments of ANA time trends for participants in the indicated characteristic-based subgroups. a
| Characteristic b | Number of Participants ANA+ / Total | ANA Prevalence Odds Ratio (95% CI) for Time Period |
Trend P | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period 1: 1988-1991 | Period 2: 1999-2004 | Period 3: 2011-2012 | |||
| Overall | 1,857 / 13,519 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.02 (0.84 - 1.24) | 1.50 (1.23 - 1.82) | <0.0001 |
| Sex | |||||
| Male | 613 / 6,641 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.67 - 1.22) | 1.76 (1.32 - 2.35) | 0.0001 |
| Female | 1,244 / 6,878 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.07 (0.84 - 1.36) | 1.37 (1.09 - 1.73) | 0.008 |
| Age (years) | |||||
| Adolescent (12-19) | 234 / 2,541 | 1.00 (reference) | 2.07 (1.18 - 3.64) | 2.77 (1.56 - 4.91) | 0.0004 |
| Younger Adult (20-49) | 663 / 5,853 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.84 (0.63 - 1.13) | 1.30 (0.99 - 1.73) | 0.08 |
| Older Adult (≥ 50) | 960 / 5,125 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.07 (0.79 - 1.45) | 1.52 (1.17 - 1.98) | 0.002 |
| Race/Ethnicity | |||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 748 / 5,686 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.08 (0.84 - 1.38) | 1.71 (1.34 - 2.18) | <0.0001 |
| Non-Hispanic African American | 488 / 3,123 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.97 (0.75 - 1.24) | 1.08 (0.81 - 1.45) | 0.60 |
| Mexican American | 394 / 3,016 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.81 (0.61 - 1.07) | 0.82 (0.61 - 1.11) | 0.25 |
| Other | 227 / 1,694 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.73 (0.34 - 1.59) | 1.15 (0.57 - 2.33) | 0.45 |
| Body Mass Index (BMI) | |||||
| Underweight/Healthy | 734 / 5,524 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.04 (0.81 - 1.34) | 1.24 (0.98 - 1.59) | 0.09 |
| Overweight | 552 / 4,102 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.01 (0.71 - 1.45) | 1.98 (1.39 - 2.83) | 0.0001 |
| Obese | 551 / 3,797 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.04 (0.75 - 1.44) | 1.44 (0.97 - 2.12) | 0.06 |
| Smoking Exposure | |||||
| None | 747 / 4,624 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.73 (0.45 - 1.18) | 1.03 (0.63 - 1.69) | 0.18 |
| Second-Hand | 695 / 5,481 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.24 (0.93 - 1.65) | 1.69 (1.30 - 2.20) | 0.0004 |
| Active | 374 / 3,183 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.81 (0.53 - 1.24) | 1.43 (1.00 - 2.06) | 0.08 |
| Alcohol Consumption | |||||
| None | 666 / 3,834 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.96 (0.67 - 1.37) | 1.39 (0.95 – 2.02) | 0.15 |
| Light | 457 / 3,215 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.85 (0.61 - 1.18) | 1.29 (0.94 - 1.77) | 0.07 |
| Moderate/Heavy | 240 / 2,378 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.98 (0.58 - 1.63) | 2.46 (1.58 - 3.84) | <0.0001 |
Abbreviations: ANA = antinuclear antibodies; ANA+ = positive for ANA; CI = confidence interval.
The ANA time trend assessments were based on two logistic regression models that adjusted for the survey design variables (strata, clusters, and sampling weights) and categorical covariates for sex, age, and race/ethnicity. One model added a categorical covariate for time period and estimated the ANA prevalence odds ratio for each period, relative to the first. The other model added a quantitative covariate for the number of years between period midpoints, relative to the first, and produced a P value from a χ2-test to assess an ANA time trend.
BMI was categorized as underweight/healthy, overweight, or obese using standard cut points of <25, 25 to <30, or ≥30 kg/m2 for persons ≥20 years old and by applying 2000 CDC growth chart percentiles of <85, 85 to <95, or ≥95 for persons 12-19 years old. Smoking exposure was based on current measured cotinine levels and classified as none (<0.05 ng/ml), second-hand (0.05 to 15 ng/ml), or active (>15 ng/ml). Alcohol consumption (available for ages ≥20 years) was based on the number of drinks in the past year and classified as none (<12 total), light (1-3 per week), or moderate/heavy (>3 per week).
Supplemental analyses.
We performed supplemental analyses to assess possible ANA correlates and time trends within additional subgroups, such as those based on finer age groups (by decade), sex/age combinations, smoking history, poverty income ratio, and education (Supplementary Tables 1–4). Though there was little indication of an overall ANA association with smoking history, poverty income ratio, or education, we found strong evidence of increasing ANA time trends in the higher income subgroup (P = 0.0001) and higher education subgroup (P = 0.0008).
To further explore changes in ANA over time, we considered trends in ANA staining intensities, titers, and patterns in ANA-positive participants. None of these factors was informative, though there was weak evidence suggesting that mitotic patterns increased over time (Supplementary Table 5).
We also investigated changes over time in the prevalence of thyroid disease and its association with ANA. The overall prevalence of self-reported, physician-diagnosed thyroid disease increased across the 3 time periods (P for trend < 0.0001), as well as in various sex-by-age subgroups (Supplementary Table 6). In each time period, ANA rates were higher among those with thyroid disease (21-24%) compared to those without thyroid disease (12-16%).
DISCUSSION
Most autoimmune diseases are persistent conditions, with unknown etiologies and diverse pathologic manifestations. They impact as many as 1 in 20 individuals in the adult US population, with substantial personal and societal costs. Recent studies suggest the incidence of some autoimmune diseases may be increasing (4–6). However, true temporal trends are difficult to determine due to the lack of national registries and changes in the assessment and diagnosis of specific diseases (16). We hypothesized that the prevalence of ANA, an objective and common biomarker of autoimmunity, may also have increased over time.
The NHANES databases and serum repositories provided a unique opportunity to assess this hypothesis in nationally representative samples of the US population age ≥12 years across 3 time periods (1988-1991, 1999-2004, and 2011-2012). As expected, a considerable proportion of the population had ANA. Our novel and robust findings suggest that ANA prevalence increased substantially in the US over the 25-year timeframe examined, increasing from 11.0% in 1988-1991 to 11.4% in 1999-2004 to 16.1% in 2011-2012 for persons age ≥12 years, which corresponds to ~22.3 million, ~26.6 million, and ~41.5 million affected persons, respectively. We adjusted for sex, age, and race/ethnicity, and found positive ANA time trends overall and in certain subgroups. Further adjustment for key health characteristics, some of which have shifted in recent years (e.g., obesity, smoking exposure, and alcohol consumption), had little impact.
Increasing evidence suggests that autoantibodies precede the onset of symptomatic autoimmune disease by several years (17, 18); thus, ANA may be an intermediate marker on the pathway toward disease or may signal increased susceptibility to autoimmune diseases through related causal pathways. ANA have also been associated with other factors, including chemical exposures, infections, medications, and parity (9, 11–13), some of which are likely changing in frequency in the US population. Like ANA, autoimmune thyroid disease is more common in women and the likelihood of development increases with age (19). Additionally, an elevated prevalence of ANA has been seen in patients with thyroid disease (20). In exploratory analyses of the same samples of NHANES data, we observed both an increasing prevalence of self-reported thyroid disease and an association between thyroid disease and ANA. Because trends in ANA could be markers of increasing susceptibility to developing autoimmune diseases, the concurrent time trends in thyroid disease and ANA exemplify the potential clinical relevance of our broader findings.
Our previous research identified several ANA correlates (8). The present study confirmed that ANA prevalence increased with age and was relatively high in females and non-Hispanic African Americans. The number of individuals who are obese or overweight have increased dramatically in the US population, and though statistical support was weak, our results suggest a possibly shifting association between ANA prevalence and individuals who are overweight, from inverse associations in the first 2 time periods to a positive association in the third time period (when ANA prevalence also increased the most). Although higher BMI has been associated with risk of systemic autoimmune diseases, such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (21, 22), further study is needed to understand the relationship of ANA with BMI. While smoking is a risk factor for some autoimmune diseases, smoking appears protective for others (23). Active smoking was weakly associated with lower levels of ANA. Rates of smoking have decreased in the population, but inclusion of smoking in our models had little impact on the observed ANA time trends. The data also suggested a possible inverse association between ANA and alcohol consumption in the first 2 time periods. These findings are in part consistent with increasing evidence, including that from 2 recent prospective cohorts, of a possible protective role of moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of developing SLE (24, 25). Thus, further investigation is needed to understand and expand on these concerns.
Our study had several strengths. The ANA subsamples were large, spanned 25 years, and were representative of the US population age ≥12 years. Also, all ANA assays were performed in the same laboratory and used the same methods. In addition, our analyses accounted for sociodemographic factors and various health behaviors as potential trend modifiers.
Our findings, however, should be interpreted in the context of certain limitations: 1) associations were based on cross-sectional data rather than repeated measures; 2) some variables were self-reported, including the limited questionnaire data on autoimmune diseases; 3) ANA were not assessed in children age <12 years; and 4) the NHANES excludes institutionalized participants, such as the elderly in residential care. Although some of the serum samples were 3 decades old, there were no gross differences in appearance or behavior of the samples to suggest degradation, and antibodies are known to be stable over time in frozen storage (26). Moreover, the observed time trends were not apparent in all subgroups, as might be expected if the age of the specimens was influencing the measured levels of ANA.
Recently, Pisetsky and colleagues (27) reconfirmed that different ANA assay kits can give different results. They were interested in assessing variation in ANA assays, and thus used 3 ANA kits, an ANA enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and a bead-based multiplex assay, whereas we purposely used a single assay (performed in one laboratory) to provide as much consistency as possible in our evaluation of ANA changes over time. We used the NOVA View system due to familiarity, previous positive experiences, and the need to improve efficiency for the large number of samples in our study by using a semiautomated system. Thus, we were restricted to the ANA assay that accompanied the system and we knew that this assay could detect some autoantibodies that others could not (e.g., autoantibodies to cytoplasmic rods and rings). Using another assay could have led to systematically higher or lower ANA prevalence estimates, but we focused on trends across the time periods. Even if time period-specific estimates shifted upward or downward with one assay versus another, presumably the same trends would be seen across time periods.
The reported P values were not adjusted for multiple comparisons, and some apparent trends and associations could be due to chance. Nevertheless, our main finding that ANA prevalence increased over time is consistent, with P ≤ 0.0001 for the trend overall and in many subgroups, so these P values would remain noteworthy even after making conservative Bonferroni adjustments that multiply by the number of comparisons.
The standard HEp-2 assay for ANA detects a heterogeneous group of autoantibodies and is a commonly used diagnostic tool in a clinical context (15). However, relatively little is known about the natural history of ANA in the absence of an autoimmune disease. Given that memory B cells typically persist once tolerance to self-antigens is broken, currently detected ANA may reflect both past and recent exposures. Our cross-sectional data did not allow us to determine the timing of ANA development relative to aging and other factors, such as smoking; however, observed differences across demographic subgroups or covariates suggest research opportunities to better understand the determinants of autoimmunity and autoimmune diseases. The ANA staining pattern is an important consideration for understanding the relevance of ANA in symptomatic and healthy populations. A dense fine speckled pattern of staining has been associated with anti-dense fine speckled 70 autoantibodies and may be more common in healthy individuals than in those with autoimmune diseases (28, 29). However, neither a dense fine speckled pattern of staining nor other ANA patterns appeared to explain the increasing ANA time trends observed in our study. The autoantigens recognized by the mitotic staining pattern, which showed weak evidence of increasing over time, are poorly understood and have uncertain clinical implications (15, 30).
Although ANA prevalence increased across the 3 periods in many subgroups, the rate and timing of this increase were not always the same, especially with respect to age. Reasons for the generation of ANA at different times across the lifespan may vary. For example, the incidence of ANA in older adults may be related to immunosenescence (31) or to exposures that increase with age, such as medications. Notably, while ANA prevalence was highest in adults age ≥70 years, it varied little over time in this age group (20.9-24.5%) (Supplementary Table 2). In contrast, ANA prevalence in adolescents age 12-19 years increased dramatically from 5.0% to 9.7% to 12.4% across the 3 time periods. While investigations of ANA in healthy children are limited (32, 33), potential explanations for an increase in ANA prevalence include changes in perinatal or early-life exposures, such as childhood infections or other types of exposures during developmentally sensitive periods, possibly leading to dysregulated immunity. The rising ANA time trend observed in this age group may be particularly concerning if ANA are harbingers of increased susceptibility to future autoimmune diseases.
In conclusion, the overall prevalence of ANA in the US increased from 1988 to 2012, with a greater increase in recent years. Both sex and age were consistently strong ANA correlates, while ANA associations with race/ethnicity, BMI, smoking exposure, and alcohol consumption varied over time. The positive ANA time trends were most pronounced in adolescents, males, and non-Hispanic whites. Additional studies to complement our exploratory investigation, particularly of the aforementioned sociodemographic groups, should be the focus of future research to determine the driving forces underlying these ANA increases and to inform the development of possible preventative measures.
Supplementary Material
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank Drs. Charles Dillon, Helen Meier, and Paivi Salo for their helpful comments, Justin Nicholas and Rodrigo Mora for technical laboratory assistance, and Dr. Geraldine McQuillan for administrative and regulatory assistance. We also thank Wayne Pereanu for technical editing and the members of the NHANES Autoimmunity Study Group (including Drs. Linda Birnbaum, Richard Cohn, Dori Germolec, Minoru Satoh, Nigel Walker, and Irene Whitt) for initiating the studies that motivated much of this research. We thank Dr. Michael Mahler (Inova Diagnostics) for providing the use of the NOVA View automated fluorescence microscope system for data collection.
This research was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences under projects Z01 ES025041 and Z01 ES101074, and under contract HHSN273201600011C to Social & Scientific Systems.
There was no financial support nor other benefits from commercial sources for the work reported on in the manuscript, and there are no other financial interests of the authors, which could create a potential conflict of interest or the appearance of a conflict of interest with regard to the work.
The interpretation and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent positions of any of the authors’ affiliations.
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