Table 3.

Unadjusted and adjusted linear trends in total, outpatient, and inpatient emergency department visits for adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities, by policy change— eight US states, 2010–2016.

	Total		Outpatient		Inpatient
Reform	Unadj.	Adjusted	Unadj.	Adjusted	Unadj.	Adjusted
Trends across states
	0.45	−0.31	0.48*	0.02	−0.03	−0.33*
Managed care transition
No	−0.13	−0.23	0.06	0.11	−0.19	−0.34
Yes	0.63	−0.24	0.37	−0.31	0.27	0.04
Medicaid expansion
No	1.13**	0.54	1.03**	0.75	0.09	−0.17
Waiver	−0.80	−0.96	−0.79	−0.85	−0.01	−0.07
Full	−1.17**	−1.07**	−0.90*	−0.93*	−0.28	−0.19
Healthcare reform
No	−0.27	0.32	−0.08	0.68	−0.20	−0.32*
Large	0.23	−0.74	0.21	−0.76	0.01	−0.03
Small	1.11	−0.04	0.75	−0.22	0.37***	0.19

Notes: Numbers show coefficients of linear trends (for no policy change) and interaction terms between linear trends and policy indicators. Adding the estimate for the interaction term to that for the linear trend yields the estimated direction and magnitude of change in ED visits associated with the applicable policy change (e.g., −0.80 + 1.13 = 0.33 for Medicaid expansion via waiver [unadjusted]). Regressions for unadjusted trends include the intercept, time trend, and policy indicators. Regression for adjusted trends also include state fixed effects and demographic characteristics (age; sex).

Significance codes:

^*:p < 0.05;

^**:p < 0.01;

^***:p < 0.001.

Source: State Medicaid claims and enrollment records, 2010–2016.