Scenario
Mental health services growth	× 2	× 2	× 3	× 3	× 3	× 5	× 5	× 5
Direct access proportion	—	10%	—	20%	20%	—	50%	50%
Perceived need for mental health services	—	—	—	—	+5%	—	—	+10%
ED presentations (mental health): all ages	–7083 (0.96%)	–8469 (1.15%)	–10 324 (1.40%)	–16 355 (2.21%)	–13 485 (1.83%)	–12 806 (1.73%)	–26 616 (3.60%)	–22 439 (3.04%)
ED presentations (mental health): 15–24 years	–825 (0.58%)	–1120 (0.79%)	–1082 (0.76%)	–2064 (1.46%)	–1602 (1.13%)	–1268 (0.89%)	–3136 (2.21%)	–2446 (1.72%)
Hospitalisations with self‐harm: all ages	–326 (0.52%)	–368 (0.58%)	–469 (0.74%)	–721 (1.14%)	–732 (1.16%)	–562 (0.89%)	–1199 (1.90%)	–1295 (2.05%)
Hospitalisations with self‐harm: 15–24 years	–47 (0.26%)	–61 (0.33%)	–58 (0.31%)	–116 (0.63%)	–127 (0.69%)	–64 (0.35%)	–176 (0.96%)	–213 (1.15%)
Deaths by suicide: all ages	–43 (0.58%)	–48 (0.64%)	–64 (0.86%)	–94 (1.3%)	–95 (1.3%)	–78 (1.1%)	–158 (2.13%)	–170 (2.28%)
Deaths by suicide: 15–24 years	–2.3 (0.26%)	–2.9 (0.33%)	–2.8 (0.31%)	–5.6 (0.63%)	–6.1 (0.69%)	–3 (0.35%)	–9 (1.0%)	–10 (1.2%)

ED = emergency department.

^*Assumptions: extended Better Access (maximum twenty sessions per year) available until 31 December 2022; more rapid growth in specialised mental health services commences 1 January 2022; direct access and increase in perceived needs for mental health services commence 1 January 2024.