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. 2024 Mar 8;20(3):e1011934. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011934

Fig 2. Estimates of the date of emergence of the Alpha variant in the United Kingdom (UK).

Fig 2

(A) The epidemic curve corresponding to the data used to calibrate the model, for context. A total of N = 406 samples carrying the Alpha variant were collected between September 20 and November 11, 2020 [21]. (B) Violin plots for the distributions of the date of emergence. We estimated the emergence of the Alpha variant in the UK at August 21 (95%IPR: Jul 23–Sep 5), 2020 (top, blue; upper and lower bound of the 95%IPR depicted by bars). For comparison, we also show the distributions of the estimates from an updated version of the model developed in [11]—which relies on a single observation on September 20—where we set R = 1.9 and a negative-binomial distribution for the number of the secondary cases (middle, orange). The distribution for the estimated time of most recent ancestor (tMRCA) [12] is also shown (bottom, gray).