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. 2024 Feb 8;12:RP88283. doi: 10.7554/eLife.88283

Table 2. Overview of modeled scenarios for allocation of funding to different transmission settings.

Strategies 1A-1E compare resource allocation scenarios using clinical incidence values from each transmission setting at equilibrium after insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage has been introduced. Strategies 2A-2B are compared as part of the allocation over time sub-analysis. EIR: entomological inoculation rate.

Strategy Modeling approach/assumptions
1A Optimized for total malaria case reduction Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimal allocation of a given budget to minimize the total number of global malaria cases.
1B Optimized for total malaria case reduction and pre-elimination Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimal allocation of a given budget to minimize the total number of global malaria cases while placing a premium on the pre-elimination phase being reached in a setting.
1C Prioritize high-transmission settings Funding is allocated to groups of countries according to transmission intensity (P. falciparum + P. vivax entomological inoculation rate, EIR). For a given budget, the transmission settings with the highest EIR are prioritized, increasing ITN coverage in increments of 1% in each setting until malaria is eliminated or until an increase in coverage leads to no further decrease in cases, before allocating to the next-highest EIR setting.
1D Prioritize low-transmission (near-elimination) settings Funding is allocated to groups of countries according to transmission intensity (P. falciparum + P. vivax EIR). For a given budget, the transmission settings with the lowest EIR are prioritized, increasing ITN coverage in increments of 1% in each setting until malaria is eliminated or until an increase in coverage leads to no further decrease in cases, before allocating to the next-lowest EIR setting.
1E Proportional allocation Funding is allocated to groups of countries in proportion to their disease burden. Budget shares are calculated using country data from the World Malaria Report (World Health Organization, 2007; World Health Organization, 2020) and account for the country-specific total malaria cases (P. falciparum and P. vivax), deaths, incidence and mortality rate in 2000–2004, scaled by the subsequent increase in the population at risk (The Global Fund, 2019).
2A One-time optimized allocation for P. falciparum case reduction Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimized allocation at a given budget, minimizing the total number of global P. falciparum cases after 39 years, resulting in constant ITN usage in each setting over this time period.
2B Optimized allocation every three years for P. falciparum case reduction Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimized allocation at a given budget, minimizing the total number of global P. falciparum cases after every 3 year period for 39 years, allowing ITN usage to vary in each setting every 3 years.