Table 2. Overview of modeled scenarios for allocation of funding to different transmission settings.
Strategies 1A-1E compare resource allocation scenarios using clinical incidence values from each transmission setting at equilibrium after insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage has been introduced. Strategies 2A-2B are compared as part of the allocation over time sub-analysis. EIR: entomological inoculation rate.
| Strategy | Modeling approach/assumptions | |
|---|---|---|
| 1A | Optimized for total malaria case reduction | Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimal allocation of a given budget to minimize the total number of global malaria cases. |
| 1B | Optimized for total malaria case reduction and pre-elimination | Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimal allocation of a given budget to minimize the total number of global malaria cases while placing a premium on the pre-elimination phase being reached in a setting. |
| 1C | Prioritize high-transmission settings | Funding is allocated to groups of countries according to transmission intensity (P. falciparum + P. vivax entomological inoculation rate, EIR). For a given budget, the transmission settings with the highest EIR are prioritized, increasing ITN coverage in increments of 1% in each setting until malaria is eliminated or until an increase in coverage leads to no further decrease in cases, before allocating to the next-highest EIR setting. |
| 1D | Prioritize low-transmission (near-elimination) settings | Funding is allocated to groups of countries according to transmission intensity (P. falciparum + P. vivax EIR). For a given budget, the transmission settings with the lowest EIR are prioritized, increasing ITN coverage in increments of 1% in each setting until malaria is eliminated or until an increase in coverage leads to no further decrease in cases, before allocating to the next-lowest EIR setting. |
| 1E | Proportional allocation | Funding is allocated to groups of countries in proportion to their disease burden. Budget shares are calculated using country data from the World Malaria Report (World Health Organization, 2007; World Health Organization, 2020) and account for the country-specific total malaria cases (P. falciparum and P. vivax), deaths, incidence and mortality rate in 2000–2004, scaled by the subsequent increase in the population at risk (The Global Fund, 2019). |
| 2A | One-time optimized allocation for P. falciparum case reduction | Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimized allocation at a given budget, minimizing the total number of global P. falciparum cases after 39 years, resulting in constant ITN usage in each setting over this time period. |
| 2B | Optimized allocation every three years for P. falciparum case reduction | Generalized simulated annealing is used to determine the optimized allocation at a given budget, minimizing the total number of global P. falciparum cases after every 3 year period for 39 years, allowing ITN usage to vary in each setting every 3 years. |