Table 2.

Predictive performance summary for the eFalls prediction model on internal validation, internal–external cross-validation and external validation, and the recalibrated model on apparent validation

	Performance in model development data		Performance in external validation data		Recalibrated model performance in external validation data
	Pooled across GP practices (apparent)	Internal–external cross-validation	Overall performance	Pooled across GP practices	Overall performance (apparent)	Pooled across GP practices (apparent)
Calibration slope
Summary estimate	0.99	0.99	1.248	1.203	1.000	0.964
95% confidence interval	0.97 to 1.01	0.75 to 1.22	1.244 to 1.265	1.133 to 1.273	1.000 to 1.013	0.908 to 1.020
95% prediction interval	0.80 to 1.18	0.30 to 1.67	–	0.858 to 1.548	–	0.687 to 1.240
(95% CI)	0.009 (0.005 to 0.014)	0.052 (0.018 to 0.247)	–	0.029 (0.006 to 0.060)	–	0.018 (0.004 to 0.039)
Calibration-in-the-large
Summary estimate	0.154	−0.13	−0.931	−0.874	0.000	0.064
95% confidence interval	0.095 to 0.212	−0.66 to 0.40	−0.938 to −0.920	−0.964 to −0.783	−0.009 to 0.010	−0.027 to 0.154
95% prediction interval	−0.96 to 1.27	−1.65 to 1.39	–	−1.375 to −0.372	–	−0.442 to 0.569
(95% CI)	0.319 (0.275 to 0.373)	0.256 (0.091 to 1.219)	–	0.061 (0.035 to 0.151)	–	0.062 (0.035 to 0.149)
O/E ratio
Summary estimate	1.19	0.88	0.432	0.431	1.000	1.013
95% confidence interval	1.12 to 1.26	0.53 to 1.46	0.430 to 0.437	0.388 to 0.479	0.992 to 1.009	0.916 to 1.122
95% prediction interval	0.14 to 2.24	0.21 to 3.70	–	0.194 to 0.958	–	0.475 to 2.163
(95% CI)	0.282 (0.230 to 0.348)	0.228 (0.082 to 1.085)	–	0.157 (0.117 to 0.263)	–	0.142 (0.106 to 0.239)
C-statistic
Summary estimate	0.72	0.72	0.825	0.816	0.825	0.816
95% confidence interval	0.72 to 0.72	0.68 to 0.76	0.824 to 0.828	0.801 to 0.830	0.825 to 0.828	0.801 to 1.000
95% prediction interval	0.68 to 0.76	0.59 to 0.85	–	0.715 to 0.886	–	0.715 to 0.886
(95% CI)	0.010 (0.006 to 0.016)	0.002 (0.001 to 0.008)	–	0.078 (0.039 to 0.138)	–	0.078 (0.039 to 0.138)