Table 1.
Post hoc Bayesian analysis of the phase 3 INCREASE trial for time to first disease progression event
| Prior | Prior median HR | Posterior median HR (95% credible interval) | Probability HR<1 | Probability HR<0.8 |
| PVR<4 WU | ||||
| Non-informative | N/A | 0.62 (0.24 to 1.47) | 86.12% | 72.05% |
| Optimistic | 0.67 | 0.66 (0.46 to 0.95) | 98.78% | 85.01% |
| Neutral | 1 | 0.81 (0.45 to 1.44) | 76.33% | 48.59% |
| Pessimistic | 1.3 | 1.15 (0.80 to 1.64) | 22.79% | 2.43% |
| PVR≤5 WU | ||||
| Non-informative | N/A | 0.53 (0.29 to 0.92) | 98.81% | 92.85% |
| Optimistic | 0.67 | 0.62 (0.45 to 0.86) | 99.83% | 93.97% |
| Neutral | 1 | 0.66 (0.42 to 1.03) | 96.70% | 80.66% |
| Pessimistic | 1.3 | 0.96 (0.70 to 1.32) | 60.04% | 13.11% |
N/A, not applicable; PVR, pulmonary vascular resistance; WU, Wood unit.