Table 1.
Summary of the 10 cancers examined and risk factors identified in the best-fit models.
| Sex | Age | Cancer | No. counties included | Cumulative incident case count | Standardized incidence rate | Risk factors* | Adjusted R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 25–49 | Colon and rectum | 61 | 4444 | 16.7 (6) | POV, INS, RACE, RADONZONE | 0.07 |
| Melanoma of the skin | 58 | 2687 | 12.7 (4.6) | POV, INS, RACE, TOXIC, NIT | 0.54 | ||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 51 | 2915 | 11.1 (4.2) | POV, INS, RACE, PHYACT | 0.12 | ||
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 51 | 3288 | 9.9 (3.3) | POV, INS, RACE, AG | 0.15 | ||
| Thyroid | 47 | 3282 | 9.8 (3.9) | POV, INS, RACE, PHYACT, BC | 0.30 | ||
| Prostate | 48 | 3300 | 8.8 (4.4) | POV, INS, RACE, OZONE | 0.23 | ||
| Lung and bronchus | 49 | 1941 | 8.4 (3.4) | POV, INS, RACE, SMOK, TTHM, LAT | 0.57 | ||
| Leukemia | 48 | 1951 | 7.9 (5.6) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL | 0.24 | ||
| 50–69 | Prostate | 62 | 81,193 | 350 (62) | POV, INS, RACE, OZONE, OBESE | 0.32 | |
| Lung and bronchus | 62 | 27,331 | 155.2 (30.2) | POV, INS, RACE, SMOK, LAT | 0.72 | ||
| Colon and rectum | 62 | 18,867 | 89.1 (10.1) | POV, INS, RACE, PHYACT | 0.09 | ||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 61 | 11,739 | 56.3 (11) | POV, INS, RACE, LAT, LAT2 | 0.16 | ||
| Melanoma of the skin | 62 | 8950 | 50.4 (14.5) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL, PHYACT, OBESE, SOIL | 0.51 | ||
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 61 | 10,112 | 46.8 (7.3) | POV, INS, RACE, NITRA | 0.15 | ||
| Leukemia | 61 | 7425 | 37 (7.7) | POV, INS, RACE, OMOC | 0.10 | ||
| Thyroid | 55 | 4,169 | 16.8 (5.7) | POV, INS, RACE, LAT, LAT2 | 0.48 | ||
| 70–84 | Prostate | 62 | 41,971 | 644.7 (113.2) | POV, INS, RACE, OZONE, LAT, NIT | 0.38 | |
| Lung and bronchus | 62 | 26,775 | 507.8 (79.8) | POV, INS, RACE, AG, SMOK, LAT | 0.54 | ||
| Colon and rectum | 61 | 13,846 | 230.1 (44.3) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL, UTDPRV1 | 0.23 | ||
| Melanoma of the skin | 61 | 7207 | 136.9 (39.7) | POV, INS, RACE, TOXIC, UTDPRV1, SOIL | 0.39 | ||
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 61 | 7622 | 128.9 (24.2) | POV, INS, RACE, OM | 0.13 | ||
| Leukemia | 61 | 6561 | 116.3 (27.9) | POV, INS, RACE, RADONZONE | 0.18 | ||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 61 | 6124 | 102.9 (19.7) | POV, INS, RACE, OBESE, OM | 0.18 | ||
| Women | 25–49 | Breast | 61 | 28,204 | 89.5 (14.3) | POV, INS, RACE, NH4 | 0.42 |
| Thyroid | 61 | 12,111 | 37.6 (10.4) | POV, INS, RACE, AG, PHYACT, LAT | 0.45 | ||
| Melanoma of the skin | 60 | 3607 | 19 (7.6) | POV, INS, RACE, AG | 0.53 | ||
| Colon and rectum | 57 | 4053 | 16.2 (6.6) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL | 0.13 | ||
| Corpus uteri | 55 | 3470 | 14.5 (6.8) | POV, INS, RACE, LAT | 0.34 | ||
| Lung and bronchus | 55 | 2385 | 11.6 (5.2) | POV, INS, RURAL, SMOK | 0.46 | ||
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 39 | 2411 | 7.1 (3.3) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL, PHYACT, NH4 | 0.32 | ||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 42 | 1,608 | 6.9 (3.5) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL, CHKUP, AG | 0.40 | ||
| 50–69 | Breast | 62 | 70,389 | 303.8 (26) | POV, INS, RACE, MAMMO | 0.42 | |
| Lung and bronchus | 62 | 26,582 | 142 (30.5) | POV, INS, RURAL, SMOK, LAT | 0.60 | ||
| Corpus uteri | 62 | 21,181 | 94.9 (11.3) | POV, INS, RACE, NIT | 0.22 | ||
| Colon and rectum | 61 | 14,945 | 64.7 (11.4) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL | 0.13 | ||
| Thyroid | 61 | 10,735 | 39.8 (12.6) | POV, INS, RACE, AG, COLSIG | 0.47 | ||
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 61 | 8,286 | 35.7 (8.6) | POV, INS, RACE, LAT, LAT2 | −0.05 | ||
| Melanoma of the skin | 61 | 6,255 | 34.3 (9.8) | POV, INS, RACE, AG | 0.41 | ||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 61 | 5,679 | 28 (6.7) | POV, INS, RACE, RURAL, RADONZONE, COLSIG, TTHM | 0.32 | ||
| Leukemia | 59 | 4,937 | 22.6 (6.6) | POV, INS, RACE, LAT | 0.13 | ||
| 70–84 | Breast | 62 | 36,218 | 474.4 (65.6) | POV, INS, RACE, NIT | 0.20 | |
| Lung and bronchus | 62 | 27,660 | 394.8 (68.5) | POV, INS, SMOK | 0.42 | ||
| Colon and rectum | 62 | 14,032 | 189.7 (39) | POV, INS, RACE, MAMMO | 0.13 | ||
| Corpus uteri | 61 | 9,026 | 111 (21) | POV, INS, RACE, COLSIG, NH4 | 0.16 | ||
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 60 | 7,060 | 90.6 (19.8) | POV, INS, RACE, OZONE | 0.12 | ||
| Leukemia | 60 | 4,563 | 60.4 (15.7) | POV, INS, RACE, CHKUP | 0.09 | ||
| Melanoma of the skin | 60 | 3,950 | 53.7 (18.5) | POV, INS, RACE, HAA5 | 0.21 | ||
| Kidney and renal pelvis | 57 | 3,771 | 51.9 (15.1) | POV, INS, RACE, NITRA | 0.13 | ||
| Thyroid | 40 | 2,452 | 24.4 (9.8) | POV, INS, RACE, MAMMO, COLSIG, AG | 0.35 |
Columns 4 and 5 show the number of counties included and age-standardized cancer incidence rate (per 100,000 people; mean and standard deviation in parentheses), for each cancer, age group, and sex (specified in columns 1–3). Columns 6 and 7 show the risk factors identified in the best-fit model and the corresponding adjusted R2 (those with an adjusted R2 > 0.3 are bolded). See specific measure corresponding to each risk factor abbreviation in the footnote and details in Table S1. Note Leukemia for women aged 25–49 and thyroid cancer for men aged 70–84 were not included in the analysis due to low incidence rates (i.e., less than 60% of counties reported > 5 cases over the 9-year study period).
* POV: percent of population living in poverty; INS: percent of population without health insurance; RACE: percentage of white residents; RADONZONE: radon zone; TOXIC: rate of reported acute toxic substance release incidents per 100,000 population; NIT: annual mean nitrate concentration in ambient air; PHYACT: percent of adults aged > = 18 years with no leisure-time physical activity; AG: percent of land used for agriculture; BC: Annual mean black carbon concentration in ambient air; OZONE: number of days with maximum 8-h average ozone concentration exceed NAAQS; SMOK: percent of adults aged > = 18 years with current smoking; TTHM: mean concentration of total trihalomethanes in drinking water; LAT: latitude of county; LAT2: polynomial term of latitude; RURAL: classification of county from rural to urban; OBESE: percent of adults aged > = 18 years with obesity; SOIL: annual mean mineral dust concentration in ambient air; NITRA: mean concentration of nitrate in drinking water; OMOC: spatially and seasonally resolved estimate of the ratio of global organic mass to organic carbon; UTDPRV: percent of older adult aged > = 65 years who are up-to-date on a core set of clinical preventive services; OM: annual mean organic matter concentration in ambient air; NH4: annual mean ammonium concentration in ambient air; CHKUP: percent of adults aged > = 18 years with visits to the doctor for routine checkup; MAMMO: percent of women aged > = 50 to = 74 years who use mammography; COLSIG: percent of adults aged > = 50 to = 75 years who have received a fecal occult blood test, sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy; HAA5: Mean concentration of haloacetic acids in drinking water.