Table 2:

Comparison of simulation values and surveillance data over the immediate pre-COVID-19 (2018–19) and COVID-19 (2020–21) time periods for several relevant indicators. Credible range for simulated values obtained through uncertainty analysis (2018–20) and combined uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis to COVID-19 effects (2021).

Time period	2018		2019		2020		2021
Data type	Simulated	Surveillance	Simulated	Surveillance	Simulated	Surveillance	Simulated	Surveillance
Estimates of New HIV infections	37,778 (32,142-37,778)	36,100 (34,600–37,700)5	37,107 (31,106-37,107)	34,800 (33,100–36,600)5	33,725 (27,360-33.725)	33,600 (31,600–35,700)5	35,328 (26,526-37,313)	32,100 (29,900–34,300)5
HIV diagnoses	39,063 (33,924-39,178)	37,2994	37,757 (32,118-37,836)	36,4214	31,180 (25,986-31,180)	30,2754	36,254 (28,332-37,745)	35,7164
% VLS among diagnosed PWH	63·4% (61·8%-65·9%)	64·7%4	64·2% (62·4%-66·6%)	65·5%4	63·4% (61·5%-65·9%)	64·6%4	64·1% (61·5%-66·7%)	65·9%4
% of diagnosed PWH on ART	77·8% (76·9%-83·8%)	75·7%4	78·5% (77·7%-84·5%)	76·0%4	76·8% (75·5%-83·8%)	73·2%-75·2%4	77·8% (75·9%-84·2%)	Not reported
Number of people on PrEP	263,243 (258,666-267–512)	219,9544	278,663 (273,616-285,543)	274,9224	291,903 (286,352-297,528)	300,8874	354,243 (347,319-361,492)	365,9194