Table 2.
Key indicators from a COVID-19 outbreak (delta variant) in two prisons under the no-response and intervention scenarios (people in prison and staff).
| Scenarios | No-response (with entry and discharge continuing) | Deferral/early release | Provision of PPE to all staff/people in prison | Quarantine at reception | Isolation of people in prison | Combination of all NPIs (Baseline) | Baseline + Vaccination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW, Australia | |||||||
| Cumulative new infections | 3,740 (3,390-4,020) | 1,550 (1,340-1,720) | 3,350 (2,740-3,680) | 3,520 (3,150-3,820) | 1,790 (1,550-2,030) | 850 (720–940) | 0 (0–1) |
| Cumulative mortality | 180 (160–210) | 100 (80–120) | 160 (140–190) | 170 (150–190) | 100 (90–120) | 60 (40–80) | 0 (0–0) |
| Maximum number infected | 960 (830–1,080) | 590 (490–650) | 780 (570–900) | 860 (730–980) | 370 (300–440) | 50 (30–60) | 1 (0–1) |
| Maximum number of daily cases | 190 (140–250) | 130 (80–160) | 130 (80–170) | 170 (130–230) | 70 (50–90) | 6 (3–9) | 0 (0–0) |
| Day on maximum number of daily cases | Day 14 (Day 12-Day17) | Day 14 (Day12-Day16) | Day 18 (Day 15-Day 23) | Day 15 (Day 12-Day 17) | Day 15 (Day 12-Day18) | Day 34 (Day 25- Day 50) | Day 1 (Day 1- Day 1) |
| Maximum number in hospital | 400 (360–420) | 240 (200–260) | 360 (290–380) | 360 (320–380) | 170 (140–190) | 30 (20–40) | 0 (0–0) |
| Day on maximum number in hospital | Day 28 (Day 24- Day 33) | Day 27 (Day 25-Day30) | Day 33 (Day 29-Day 41) | Day 28 (Day 24-Day 33) | Day 32 (Day 28-Day 36) | Day 58 (Day 47 -Day 77) | Day 7 (Day 4-Day 8) |
| Maximum number in ICU | 70 (60–70) | 40 (30–50) | 60 (50–70) | 60 (50–60) | 30 (20–30) | 5 (3–7) | 0 (0–0) |
| Peak hospital bed use (%) | 23.1% (20.9–24.3)% | 13.7% (12.8–14.5)% | 20.8% (16.8–22.3)% | 20.7% (18.4–22.0)% | 9.7% (8.0–11.2)% | 1.7% (0.9–2.3)% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0)% |
| Quebec, Canada | |||||||
| Cumulative new infections | 4,520 (4,070-4,770) | 1,380 (1,350-1,400) | 3,430 (2,780-3,960) | 4,000 (3,490-4,280) | 4,290 (3,810-4,550) | 910 (740–1,050) | 1 (0–2) |
| Cumulative mortality | 160 (110–200) | 90 (50–110) | 130 (80–170) | 140 (90–170) | 160 (100–190) | 60 (40–80) | 0 (0–0) |
| Maximum number infected | 740 (630–800) | 640 (540–710) | 520 (400–620) | 550 (460–600) | 670 (570–720) | 190 (100–270) | 10 (0–10) |
| Maximum number of daily cases | 130 (100–160) | 100 (80–140) | 70 (50–100) | 100 (70–130) | 110 (90–150) | 20 (20–40) | 1 (1–1) |
| Days on maximum number of daily cases | Day 16 (Day 13-Day 18) | Day 15 (Day 12-Day 18) | Day 23 (Day 17-Day 27) | Day 15 (Day 13-Day 18) | Day 16 (Day 13-Day 19) | Day 24 (Day 18-Day 28) | Day 1 (Day 1- Day 1) |
| Maximum number in hospital | 270 (220–310) | 230 (190–270) | 230 (170–270) | 210 (160–240) | 260 (200–290) | 80 (40–120) | 0 (0–1) |
| Days on maximum number in hospital | Day 34 (Day 27-Day 38) | Day 31 (Day 25-Day 35) | Day 44 (Day 34-Day 50) | Day 35 (Day 27-Day 50) | Day 35 (Day 28-Day 40) | Day 44 (Day 36-Day 50) | 0 (0–0) |
| Maximum number in ICU | 50 (40–50) | 40 (30–50) | 40 (30–50) | 40 (30–40) | 40 (30–50) | 10 (8–20) | 0 (0–0) |
| Peak hospital bed use (%) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Each intervention is applied separately and in combination and run for 120 days. Results are for the overall population attending the prison site and are rounded to the nearest 10 (median, 95% confidence intervals).