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. 2024 Apr 1;14:7619. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-58390-3

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Onset times are negatively associated with the load of cases across all periods: we constructed a linear model that links the inferred onset times with the total cases for Period 1-4 (A)–(C). To ease the inference of slopes and intercepts of the models, we standardized the onset time and total cases data depicted by blue scatters. The model suggests a negative association between the onset time and load of cases, which is captured by the model mean and its 95%-credibility interval.