TABLE 3.
Association between biomarkers and incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Alzheimer's disease (AD) from Cox proportional hazards models.
| Model 1 a | Model 2 b | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inc. MCI+AD | HR (95% CI) | P | HR (95% CI) | P |
| P‐tau181 | 1.06 (0.93–1.21) | 0.37 | 1.51 (0.88–2.59) | 0.135 |
| NfL | 1.12 (0.94–1.33) | 0.194 | 1.29 (0.57–2.92) | 0.548 |
| GFAP | 1.10 (0.95–1.28) | 0.211 | 1.72 (0.82–3.61) | 0.151 |
| Aβ42/Aβ40 | 0.92 (0.81–1.05) | 0.206 | 0.24 (0.09‐0.62) | 0.003 |
| P‐tau181/Aβ42 | 0.93 (0.81–1.06) | 0.289 | 0.75 (0.47—1.19) | 0.217 |
| PCA1 | 1.06 (0.92–1.23) | 0.426 | 1.04 (0.88–1.23) | 0.630 |
| PCA2 | 0.86 (0.76–0.99) | 0.029 | 0.84 (0.73–0.97) | 0.021 |
| Inc. MCI | HR (95% CI) | P | HR (95% CI) | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P‐tau181 | 1.06 (0.93–1.21) | 0.37 | 1.22 (0.67–2.23) | 0.508 |
| NfL | 1.12 (0.94–1.33) | 0.194 | 1.73 (0.73–4.13) | 0.215 |
| GFAP | 1.10 (0.95–1.28) | 0.211 | 1.69 (0.79–3.63) | 0.178 |
| Aβ42/Aβ40 | 0.92 (0.81–1.05) | 0.206 | 0.67 (0.24–1.85) | 0.440 |
| P‐tau181/Aβ42 | 0.93 (0.81–1.06) | 0.289 | 0.67 (0.39–1.16) | 0.156 |
| PCA1 | 1.07 (0.91–1.27) | 0.417 | 1.08 (0.90–1.30) | 0.401 |
| PCA2 | 0.95 (0.82–1.09) | 0.453 | 0.99 (0.85–1.15) | 0.885 |
| Inc. AD | HR (95% CI) | P | HR (95% CI) | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P‐tau181 | 4.77 (1.52–14.95) | 0.007 | 2.88 (0.79–10.56) | 0.110 |
| NfL | 3.42 (0.81–14.48) | 0.095 | 3.04 (0.58–15.89) | 0.189 |
| GFAP | 3.49 (0.92–13.26) | 0.067 | 3.44 (0.79–14.96) | 0.099 |
| Aβ42/Aβ40 | 0.10 (0.01–0.81) | 0.031 | 0.07 (0.01–0.79) | 0.031 |
| P‐tau181/Aβ42 | 2.94 (1.50–5.78) | 0.002 | 3.13 (1.43–6.87) | 0.004 |
| PCA1 | 1.50 (1.12–2.01) | 0.006 | 1.49 (1.07–2.07) | 0.019 |
| PCA2 | 0.66 (0.49–0.88) | 0.005 | 0.63 (0.45–0.88) | 0.006 |
Notes: PCA1 and PCA2 were derived from principal component analysis (PCA) using log‐transformed values of Aβ42/Aβ40, p‐tau181/ Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP, with PCA1 having positive loadings on p‐tau181/ Aβ42, NfL, GFAP, and PCA2 having positive loading on Aβ42/Aβ40 and negative loading on p‐tau181/ Aβ42.
Abbreviations: Aβ, amyloid beta; APOE, apolipoprotein E; BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; GFAP, glial fibrillary acidic protein; NfL, neurofilament light chain; p‐tau181, phosphorylated tau‐181.
Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education.
Model 2: adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, APOE ε4, Charlson Comorbidity Index.