Table 1.

Past and future CMI-PB annual prediction challenges

	Annual prediction challenge title	Contestants	Number of subjects		Current status
			Training dataset	Test dataset
1	First challenge: Internal dry run	CMI-PB consortium	60 (28 aP + 32 wP)	36 (19 aP + 17 wP)	concluded in May 2022
2	Second challenge: Invited challenge	invited contestants	96 (47 aP + 49 wP)	23 (13 aP + 10 wP)	concluded in January 2024
3	Third challenge: Open Challenge	public	119 (60 aP + 59 wP)	54a (27 aP + 27 wP)	will be announced in August 2024

Our commitment involves conducting three annual challenges. The first challenge was completed in May 2022 with participation from the CMI-PB consortium. The second challenge concluded in January 2024 and featured the CMI-PB consortium along with a limited number of invited contestants from outside the consortium. We will involve members of the public in the third challenge. The first challenge included training data from a previously published study⁷ and newly generated test data. Similarly, we will use both the training and test data from previous challenges as the training data for future challenges and generate new data for testing purposes.

^aGoal