Table 2.
Impact of COVID-19 pandemic in England on child and adolescent mental health services
| Outcome variable | Pre-pandemic trend coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Immediate effect (i.e. in the first week) (lockdown 1) coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Subsequent trend (post pandemic) (lockdown 1) coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Immediate effect (lockdown 2) coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Subsequent trend (post pandemic) (lockdown 2) coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Starting level of the trend at the beginning of the follow-up period (i.e. Jan 2018) Constant coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Number of lags used in each ITSA model | Overall post-lockdown trend (lockdown 1) coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] | Overall post-lockdown trend (lockdown 2) coefficient (s.e.) [95% CI] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly admissions | 0.01 (0.13) | −53.47 (6.58) | −0.47 (0.18) | −1.14 (1.73) | 0.25 (0.13) | 82.82 (9.95) | 5 | −0.46 (0.10) | −0.21 (0.09) |
| [−0.26;0.27] | [−66.47;−40.77] | [−0.83;−0.11] | [−4.55;2.28] | [−0.01;0.50] | [63.17;102.47] | [−0.65;−0.27] | [−0.38;−0.04] | ||
| LOS | −0.40 (0.14) | −2.43 (8.02) | −0.72 (0.25) | 15.63 (10.04) | −2.59 (1.35) | 73.83 (195.27) | 6 | −1.12 (0.30) | −3.72 (1.39) |
| [−0.68;−0.12] | [−18.27;13.42] | [−1.22;−0.22] | [−4.21;35.46] | [−5.26;0.07] | [−311.90;459.57] | [−1.73;−0.52] | [−6.46;−0.97] | ||
| Number of admissions per patient | 0.01 (>0.00) | 0.57 (0.14) | 0.01 (0.01) | −0.03 (0.02) | −0.04 (0.02) | 1.97 (0.06) | 1 | 0.01 (>0.01) | −0.03 (0.02) |
| [0.01;0.01] | [0.30;0.84] | [−0.01;0.2] | [−0.08;>0.00] | [−0.08;>0.00] | [1.86;2.08] | [<−0.00;0.03] | [−0.06;0.01] | ||
| Percentage of private providers | −0.001 (0.000) | 0.092 (0.020) | −0.001 (0.001) | −0.115 (0.039) | 0.009 (0.003) | 0.426 (0.012) | 10 | −0.002 (0.001) | 0.007 (0.003) |
| [−0.001;−0.001] | [0.052;0.131] | [−0.003;0.002] | [−0.192;−0.037] | [0.002;0.015] | [0.403;0.450] | [−0.004;0.001] | [0.002;0.013] | ||
| Percentage of out-of-area admissions (natural clinical flow) | <−0.000 (<0.000) | 0.064 (0.023) | −0.003 (0.002) | −0.030 (0.037) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.228 (0.011) | 7 | −0.003 (0.002) | 0.006 (0.002) |
| [<−0.001;>0.000] | [0.018;0.110] | [−0.006;0.001] | [−0.102;0.425] | [−0.003;0.010] | [0.205;0.250] | [−0.006;0.006] | [−0.004;0.005] | ||
| Percentage of out-of-area admissions (>50 m) | <−0.000 (<0.000) | 0.087 (0.30) | −0.003 (0.002) | 0.019 (0.071) | 0.002 (0.004) | 0.229 (0.009) | 3 | −0.003 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.004) |
| [−0.001;<−0.001] | [0.027;0.148] | [−0.006;0.001] | [−0.121;0.160] | [−0.005;0.009] | [0.210;0.248] | [−0.007;0.001] | [−0.008;0.006] | ||
| Age | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.545 (0.074) | −0.009 (0.005) | 0.384 (0.195) | −0.003 (0.016) | 15.29 (0.04) | 0 | −0.071 (0.001) | −0.010 (0.015) |
| [0.001;0.003] | [0.399;0.690] | [−0.020;0.002] | [<0.001;0.769] | [−0.035;0.028] | [15.21;15.38] | [−0.018;0.004] | [−0.040;0.019] | ||
| Percentage, females | <0.000 (<0.000) | 0.007 (0.029) | 0.003 (0.002) | −0.017 (0.066) | −0.009 (0.005) | 0.738 (0.012) | 0 | 0.003 (0.002) | −0.006 (0.005) |
| [<−0.001;<0.00] | [−0.050;0.063] | [<−0.001;0.006] | [−0.147;0.112] | [−0.019;0.001] | [0.714;0.763] | [<0.001;0.007] | [−0.015;0.004] | ||
| Percentage, BAME | <0.000 (<0.000) | −0.030 (0.040) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.005 (0.036) | 0.005 (0.003) | 0.178 (0.005) | 15 | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.004 (0.002) |
| [<−0.001;<0.00] | [−0.108;0.049] | [−0.005;0.003] | [−0.067;0.076] | [−0.001;0.011] | [0.167;0.189] | [−0.005;0.003] | [0.001;0.008] | ||
| Percentage, looked-after children | <0.000 (<0.000) | 0.035 (0.027) | −0.002 (0.001) | 0.174 (0.030) | −0.009 (0.002) | 0.141 (0.010) | 10 | −0.002 (0.001) | −0.011 (0.001) |
| [<−0.001;<0.00] | [−0.019;0.089] | [−0.005;0.001] | [0.116;0.233] | [−0.013;−0.005] | [0.122;0.160] | [−0.005;0.001] | [−0.013;−0.008] | ||
| Percentage, Q1 IMD | 0.000 (0.000) | −0.041 (0.014) | −0.001 (0.001) | 0.073 (0.031) | −0.005 (0.002) | 0.162 (0.007) | 6 | <0.001 (0.001) | −0.006 (0.002) |
| [0.000;0.000] | [−0.068;−0.013] | [−0.002;0.001] | [0.012;0.134] | [−0.009;−0.001] | [0.148;0.176] | [−0.002;0.001] | (−0.009;−0.002) |
The coefficients of the OLS regression with Newey–West standard errors (s.e.) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ITSA, interrupted time series analysis; OLS, ordinary least squares; LOS, length of stay; BAME, Black Asian and Minority Ethnic group; Q1, first quintile; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation. Statistically significant results of interest are presented in bold.