Table 2.
Number of cancer cohorts whose absolute differences (absolute value of extrapolated minus observed) are relatively small, presented by model, survival framework, and follow-up time used for extrapolation: (a) within 0.1 years from the observed 10-year restricted mean survival time (RMST); (b) 1 % survival proportion at 10 years; (c) 1 year from the observed life expectancy (LE) or 40-year RMST; (d) 1 % at lifetime or 40 years.
| Follow-up Time (y) | Difference at 10 y | Difference at Lifetime or 40 y | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) ≤0.1 y of RMST | (b) ≤1% of Survival Proportion | (c) ≤1 y of LE | (d) ≤1% of Survival Proportion | ||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 3 | 5 | Total | 2 | 3 | 5 | Total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | Total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | Total | ||
| (Total cohorts) | Survival framework | (15) | (15) | (15) | (45) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (45) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (60) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (60) |
| Standard parametric models | |||||||||||||||||||
| Exponential | All-cause | 6 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 32 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| Relative | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 40 | |
| Weibull | All-cause | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 |
| Relative | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 40 | |
| Gompertz | All-cause | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| Relative | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 42 | |
| Log-logistic | All-cause | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Relative | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 41 | |
| Log-normal | All-cause | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Relative | 2 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 41 | |
| Generalized gamma | All-cause | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| Relative | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 41 | |
| Spline models | |||||||||||||||||||
| Spline hazard | All-cause | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 25 |
| Relative | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 41 | |
| Spline odds | All-cause | 0 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Relative | 2 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 44 | |
| Spline normal | All-cause | 1 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| Relative | 2 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 44 | |
LE, life expectancy; RSMT, restricted mean survival time; y, year(s). If survival proportion was not yet zero by 40 y, 40-y RMST was reported instead of LE.