Figure 1. Schematic of Natural History Model of Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) and Medications for Opioid Use Disorder (MOUD).

^aParameters were calibrated.

^bTransition is modeled with a time delay of 1 day.

^cParameters derived from MarketScan Commercial and Multi-State Medicaid Databases.

^dRecurrence of OUD as defined by recent opioid use and discontinuation of MOUD.

^eParameters derived from MOUD study²⁰ data.

^fParameters derived from scientific literature.