Table 1.
Model Variables
| Variable | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ||
| Age when disease progression begins | 30 y | Assumption |
| Distribution by age, sex, race/ethnicity | NHANES observations | NHANES 1999-2010 |
| Natural history | ||
| Initial eGFR | NHANES observations | NHANES 1999-2010 |
| Moderately increased albuminuria incidence | Estimated from NHANES; varies by age, sex, DM, HTN | NHANES data |
| Severely increased albuminuria transitions | Estimated from NHANES; varies by age, sex, DM, HTN | NHANES data; Adler et al11 |
| Risk factors and complications | ||
| Total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, SBP, smoking | NHANES observations | NHANES 1999-2000 |
| DM incidence | 0.28%-1.61%; varies by age, sex, race/ethnicity | Cowie et al,12 Geiss et al13 |
| LVH, prevalence and incidence with CKD | Prevalence, 16%-33%; incidence, 51%-61%; varies by sex, race/ethnicity | Family Blood Pressure Program; Paoletti et al,14 Cottone et al15 |
| Framingham CHD probability | Function of age, sex, SBP, cigarette use, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, DM, LVH | Anderson et al16 |
| Framingham MI probability | Function of age, sex, SBP, cigarette use, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, DM, LVH, prior CVD | Anderson et al16 |
| Framingham stroke probability | Function of age, sex, SBP, cigarette use, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, DM, LVH, prior CVD | Anderson et al16 |
| HR for cardiac events for existing CVD patients | 2.19 | Weiner et al17 |
| HR for stroke for existing CVD patients | 1.86 | Weiner et al17 |
| CKD multiplier for CVD risk | Ranges from 1 for eGFR ≥ 60 to 4.8 at eGFR = 15 | Go et al18 |
| Mortality | ||
| Annual background mortality | Total–CVD mortality; varies by age, sex, race/ethnicity | 2003 Census Life Tables (Arias19); NCHS20 |
| ESRD mortality | Varies by age, sex, race/ethnicity, DM, HTN | 2010 USRDS data |
| CKD multiplier for background mortality | Ranges from 1 at eGFR ≥ 60 to 4.8 at eGFR = 15 | Go et al,18 assumption |
| Excess mortality due to stroke, by age | Sacco et al21 | |
| <65 y | 0.14 | |
| ≥65 y | 0.32 | |
| Excess mortality due to MI, by age | Hunink et al22; Weinstein et al23 | |
| 30-44 y | 0.015 for first MI, 0.087 for other MI | |
| 45-54 y | 0.034 for first MI, 0.112 for other MI | |
| 55-64 y | 0.073 for first MI, 0.145 for other MI | |
| 65-74 y | 0.159 for first MI, 0.187 for other MI | |
| ≥75 y | 0.295 for first MI, 0.295 for other MI |
Note: eGFR is expressed as mL/min/1.73 m2.
Abbreviations: CHD, coronary heart disease; CKD, chronic kidney disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; DM, diabetes mellitus; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; ESRD, end-stage renal disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; HR, hazard ratio; HTN, hypertension; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; MI, myocardial infarction; NCHS, National Center for Health Statistics; NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; SBP, systolic blood pressure; USRDS, US Renal Data System.