Table 3.
Residual Lifetime Incidence, Current Prevalence, and Unconditional Lifetime Incidence in Adults 30 Years or Older
| Current Age 30-49 y |
Current Age 50-64 y |
Current Age ≥ 65 y |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage | Residual Lifetime Incidence | Current Prevalence | Unconditional Lifetime Incidence | Residual Lifetime Incidence | Current Prevalence | Unconditional Lifetime Incidence | Residual Lifetime Incidence | Current Prevalence | Unconditional Lifetime Incidence |
| CKD | 54.13 (53.40-54.93) | 4.02 (3.61-4.42) | 55.98 (55.47-56.56) | 52.01 (50.79-53.24) | 9.86 (8.98-10.73) | 56.74 (56.08-57.44) | 41.80 (39.78-43.85) | 39.65 (38.43-40.87) | 64.88 (64.39-65.43) |
| CKD stage 3a+ | 47.06 (46.54-47.68) | 0.71 (0.52-0.90) | 47.44 (47.01-47.95) | 44.70 (43.65-45.74) | 4.83 (4.16-5.50) | 47.37 (46.75-48.00) | 37.37 (35.64-39.09) | 30.06 (28.83-31.28) | 56.20 (55.77-56.66) |
| CKD stage 3b+ | 24.19 (23.68-24.66) | 0.19 (0.10-0.28) | 24.33 (23.90-24.73) | 23.74 (23.11-24.48) | 0.95 (0.73-1.18) | 24.47 (24.02-25.03) | 19.67 (18.56-20.70) | 10.61 (9.81-11.42) | 28.19 (27.86-28.48) |
| CKD stage 4+ | 9.42 (9.02-9.80) | 0.12 (0.06-0.17) | 9.52 (9.18-9.85) | 9.10 (8.63-9.61) | 0.33 (0.21-0.45) | 9.40 (9.04-9.79) | 8.07 (7.38-8.71) | 2.59 (2.17-3.01) | 10.45 (10.16-10.69) |
| CKD stage 5 | 3.17 (2.95-3.37) | — | 3.17 (2.95-3.37) | 3.31 (3.00-3.53) | — | 3.31 (3.00-3.53) | 2.63 (2.45-2.79) | — | 2.63 (2.45-2.79) |
Note: Values are given as percentage (95% confidence interval). Residual lifetime incidence for CKD shows the projected percentage of persons who do not currently have CKD and who will develop CKD in their lifetime. Residual lifetime incidence for CKD stage 3a+ shows the projected percentage of persons with current eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 who will develop eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in their lifetime. Residual lifetime incidence for CKD stages 3b+, 4+, and 5 are defined in a similar manner, with eGFR cutoff points of 45, 30, and 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Current prevalence estimates come from NHANES data from 1999 to 2010; NHANES does not have enough observations to support separate estimates for stage 5. Unconditional lifetime incidence of CKD accounts for persons who currently have CKD (based on NHANES) and persons currently alive who will develop CKD in their lifetime (as projected by the model).
Abbreviations: CKD, chronic kidney disease; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.