Table 4.
Projected Prevalence of CKD in 2020 and 2030
| Stage | Current Prevalencea | 2020 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age ≥ 30 y | |||
| No CKD | 86.79 (86.20-87.39) | 85.64 (85.47-85.80) | 83.30 (83.09-83.51) |
| CKD | 13.21 (12.61-13.80) | 14.35 (14.20-14.53) | 16.70 (16.49-16.91) |
| Stage 1 | 2.10 (1.88-2.32) | 2.32 (2.26-2.39) | 1.81 (1.74-1.88) |
| Stage 2 | 3.03 (2.78-3.28) | 3.49 (3.40-3.60) | 4.10 (3.94-4.23) |
| Stage 3a | 5.47 (5.06-5.88) | 5.92 (5.85-6.00) | 8.08 (7.97-8.20) |
| Stage 3b | 1.91 (1.72-2.10) | 1.90 (1.85-1.97) | 1.98 (1.89-2.08) |
| Stage 4 | 0.70 (0.60-0.80) | 0.51 (0.48-0.54) | 0.51 (0.46-0.56) |
| Stage 5 | — | 0.20 (0.18-0.22) | 0.21 (0.19-0.24) |
| Age ≥ 65 y | |||
| No CKD | 60.35 (59.13-61.57) | 63.36 (62.86-63.82) | 62.16 (61.66-62.70) |
| CKD | 39.65 (38.43-40.87) | 36.64 (36.18-37.14) | 37.84 (37.30-38.34) |
| Stage 1 | 1.16 (0.86-1.45) | 0.97 (0.88-1.09) | 0.76 (0.67-0.84) |
| Stage 2 | 8.43 (7.65-9.22) | 8.26 (7.92-8.58) | 8.59 (8.26-8.96) |
| Stage 3a | 19.44 (18.34-20.55) | 18.09 (17.80-18.44) | 20.70 (20.33-21.15) |
| Stage 3b | 8.03 (7.34-8.71) | 6.90 (6.63-7.14) | 5.77 (5.50-6.05) |
| Stage 4 | 2.59 (2.17-3.01) | 1.90 (1.76-2.03) | 1.49 (1.31-1.67) |
| Stage 5 | — | 0.51 (0.42-0.60) | 0.53 (0.44-0.65) |
Note: Values are given as percentage (95% confidence interval).
Abbreviations: CKD, chronic kidney disease; NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
a
Stage 1 through stage 4 rows for current prevalence are estimated from NHANES data. NHANES contains insufficient data to estimate stage 5 prevalence. CKD stages are defined according to NKF-KDOQI (National Kidney Foundation–Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative) guideline.9