Table 2.

Impact of modelled interventions on proportion of population experiencing violence.

Description	Parameter change	Proportion experiencing recent violence at equilibrium	% reduction from baseline
Baseline	–	77.3% (66.5–83.3%)	–
Remove homelessness entirely	βI = 0	54.0% (36.3–67.5%)	29.8% (14.5–50.2%)
Cease all police displacement	ηI = 0	43.7% (16.3–61.8%)	42.7% (23.2–77.4%)
Remove homelessness and cease all police displacement	βI = 0; ηI = 0	25.2% (13.2–37.7%)	67.3% (53.1–81.1%)
Additional housing rate as seen in housing first24	αI = αB + 1.8	73.5% (59.9–80.5%)	5.1% (2.14–11.4%)
Reduce police displacement rate by 39%	ηI = 0.61ηB	74.2% (63.0–80.9%)	3.9% (2.35–6.92%)
Additional housing and reduce policing together	αI = αB + 1.8; ηI = 0.61ηB	69.6% (55.5–77.1%)	10.2% (5.91–19.6%)
Remove difference in policing between homeless and not homeless	θI = 1	63.1% (43.3–74.6%)	17.9% (8.0–38.5%)
Being housed allows 5% to transition to indoor work and reduces violence	See supplementary methods; $\pi$ and $\kappa$	75.2% (65.1–81.1%)	2.7% (2.03–3.33%)
Being housed allows 50% to transition to indoor work and reduces violence	See supplementary methods; $\pi$ and $\kappa$	56.9% (51.5–59.9%)	26.5% (22.6–28.2%)
Being housed allows 75% to transition to indoor work and reduces violence	See supplementary methods; $\pi$ and $\kappa$	46.5% (43.9–48.1%)	39.8% (34.2–42.4%)
Increase rate of housing as seen during COVID-19 lockdown	αI = 12	66.8% (51.2–75.8%)	13.5% (6.91–25.2%)
Increase rate of policing as seen in COVID-19 lockdown	ηI = 3.2ηB	81.9% (71.6–87.4%)	Increase by 5.7% (3.55–9.94%)
Both COVID-19 changes together	αI = 12; ηI = 3.2ηB	76.8% (63.6–83.8%)	0.7% decrease (8.7% decrease–4.1% increase )

Median and 95% CrI from the 1000 model fits are shown. Subscripts B and I indicate baseline and intervention parameters.