Table 1. Performance for two-week-ahead forecasts.
Model | Target | WIS - natural | WIS - log scale | Coverage
50% |
Coverage
90% |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
abs. | rel. | sd | abs. | rel. | sd | ||||
EuroCOVIDhub-ensemble | Cases | 38.2k | 1 | 55.6k | 0.25 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.69 |
crowd-ensemble | Cases | 40.1k | 1.05 | 69.4k | 0.22 | 0.91 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.69 |
crowd-direct | Cases | 39.3k | 1.03 | 67k | 0.23 | 0.96 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
crowd-rt | Cases | 45.9k | 1.2 | 74.7k | 0.23 | 0.93 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
EuroCOVIDhub-ensemble | Deaths | 37.9 | 1 | 26.9 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.77 | 1 |
crowd-ensemble | Deaths | 40.2 | 1.06 | 41.5 | 0.12 | 0.97 | 0.07 | 0.54 | 0.77 |
crowd-direct | Deaths | 33.9 | 0.89 | 30.6 | 0.13 | 0.99 | 0.08 | 0.54 | 0.85 |
crowd-rt | Deaths | 79.5 | 2.1 | 72.7 | 0.25 | 1.98 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.46 |