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. 2023 Sep 19;8:416. [Version 1] doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19380.1

Table 1. Performance for two-week-ahead forecasts.

Values have been cut to three significant digits and rounded.

Model Target WIS - natural WIS - log scale Coverage
50%
Coverage
90%
abs. rel. sd abs. rel. sd
EuroCOVIDhub-ensemble Cases 38.2k 1 55.6k 0.25 1 0.22 0.38 0.69
crowd-ensemble Cases 40.1k 1.05 69.4k 0.22 0.91 0.25 0.38 0.69
crowd-direct Cases 39.3k 1.03 67k 0.23 0.96 0.27 0.31 0.69
crowd-rt Cases 45.9k 1.2 74.7k 0.23 0.93 0.24 0.46 0.62
EuroCOVIDhub-ensemble Deaths 37.9 1 26.9 0.13 1 0.04 0.77 1
crowd-ensemble Deaths 40.2 1.06 41.5 0.12 0.97 0.07 0.54 0.77
crowd-direct Deaths 33.9 0.89 30.6 0.13 0.99 0.08 0.54 0.85
crowd-rt Deaths 79.5 2.1 72.7 0.25 1.98 0.13 0.15 0.46
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