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. 2024 Apr 12;24:1013. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18203-8

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© This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 2 — Fitted epidemic curves of COVID-19 case counts showing the impact of the vaccinate-or-test requirement

Notes: Fitted epidemic curve of observed COVID-19 case counts and of two assumed increases in vaccination coverage attributable to the announcement of the vaccinate-or-test requirement (for October 20 – December 20, 2021). These represent approximately 51,580 and 103,160 individuals vaccinated because of the vaccinate-or-test requirement. The solid line is Illinois’s observed cumulative COVID-19 case counts, and the dashed and dotted lines are the simulated curves illustrating the cumulative total cases for scenarios where there would have been a lower vaccine uptake without the vaccinate-or-test requirement. The differences between the solid and dashed or dotted lines show the number of cases averted by the vaccinate-or-test requirement. All results assume that the effects of other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were constant over the two months analyzed