TABLE 2.

Posterior medians and 95% credible intervals for the parameters of the ecological model for the measles data

	Median	2.5%	97.5%
${\alpha }_{\text{AR}}$	0.91	−0.26	1.66
$\varphi$	0.92	0.66	0.99
${\alpha }_{\text{EN}}$	3.53	2.54	4.16
$\gamma$	0.71	0.55	0.86
$\delta$	−0.20	−0.36	−0.04
${\sigma }_{\text{AR}}$	0.66	0.28	1.61
${\sigma }_{\text{EN}}$	0.52	0.28	0.96
$R_0$	2.49	0.77	5.24