Table 4.
Variables entertained for San Juan (SJ) and Iquitos (Iq) stepwise search. Lags are provided in weeks
| SJ | Iq | name | lags | description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | ✓ | ✓ | t | – | time since the first modeled response |
| ✓ | ✓ | ci | – | cumulative observed cases in previous 52 weeks | |
| ✓ | ✓ | sin + cos | – | (both included) with periods of 52 and 26 weeks | |
| Smooth | ✓ | ✓ | ly | 1 | log cases observed [i.e., an AR(1) term] |
| ✓ | ✓ | lgm | – | average of current week’s log cases over all previous seasons | |
| ✓ | lpop | 1 | log weekly population size | ||
| ✓ | ✓ | lp | 1 | log precipitation | |
| ✓ | ✓ | lp2 | 1 | squared log precipitation | |
| ✓ | ✓ | tavg | 1, 11 | average temperature | |
| ✓ | ✓ | tavg2 | 1, 11 | squared average temperature | |
| ✓ | ndvi.45 | 1, 16 | value of NDVI at location [18.45, −66.14] | ||
| ✓ | ndvi.50 | 1, 11 | value of NDVI at location [18.50, −66.14] | ||
| ✓ | ndvi.avg | 1 | average of the four NDVI (raw climatology) values provided | ||
| ✓ | ✓ | 1, 11 | average value of scaled basic reproductive rate (Appendix C.2) | ||
| ✓ | nino12 | 1, 6, 32 | value of El Niño 1/2 | ||
| ✓ | nino12 | 1 | value of El Niño 1/2 | ||
| ✓ | soi | 1, 24 | Southern Oscillation Index | ||
| ✓ | soi | 1 | Southern Oscillation Index |