Figure 1.

Eco-epidemiological assessment and temporal trend of CHIKV transmission in Uruguay. (a) Time series of reported CHIKV cases (black, bars) and estimated climate-driven transmission potential (index P, blue, lines show the mean and shaded area the 95% quantile). The index P is shifted +1 month into the future (the index tends to precede cases, see [5]. (b) Map with mean index P at resolution available in climate data. Official departments are shown, highlighted (black and named) are those for which new genomes were generated. (c) Time-resolved maximum likelihood tree including the newly complete genome sequence from Uruguay (n = 30) generated in this study combined with publicly available sequences (n = 819) from GenBank collected up to July 20th, 2023. Colours indicate geographic location of sampling. Support for branching structure is shown by bootstrap values at key nodes. The inset on the left represents a map of South America, with highlighted South American countries bordering Uruguay (Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina); (d) Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the spread of CHIKV-ECSA in Uruguay. Circles represent nodes of the maximum clade credibility phylogeny, coloured according to their inferred time of occurrence (scale shown). Shaded areas represent the 80% highest posterior density interval and depict the uncertainty of the phylogeographic estimates for each node. Solid curved lines denote the links between nodes and the directionality of movement. Curved lines denote the direction of transmission in the anti-clockwise direction.