. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2024 Apr 19.

Published in final edited form as: Vaccine. 2021 May 14;41(Suppl 1):A136–A141. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.04.061

Table 3.

Difference in estimated expected value of cVDPV2 cases relative to COVID+mOPV2 scenario in 100 stochastic iterations for 2019–2023 for the scenarios modeled (see main text for descriptions).

	Estimated expected cVDPV2 cases
	AFR	Non-AFR	Global
COVID+mOPV2	0	0	0
COVID+nOPV2 (ideal)	−249	−57	−306
COVID+nOPV2 (not ideal)	329	6	335
COVID+nOPV2 (ideal) AFR6	1,013	12	1,024
COVID+nOPV2 (not ideal) AFR6	1,322	−7	1,315
COVID+nOPV2 (ideal) NE6	1,035	98	1,133
COVID+nOPV2 (not ideal) NE6	1,286	147	1,433

Abbreviations: AFR, blocks representing countries in the African region; AFR6, 6-month delay in AFR; COVID, coronavirus disease 2019; cVDPV2, serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus; mOPV2, serotype 2 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (Sabin-strain); NE, blocks representing non-endemic countries; NE6, 6-month delay in NE; nOPV2, serotype 2 novel oral poliovirus vaccine (candidate 1 [19]).